Containment measures limit environmental effects on COVID-19 early outbreak dynamics

Ortiz

2020

Preprint

Understanding the factors underpinning COVID-19 infection and mortality rates is essential in order to implement actions that help mitigate the current pandemic. Here we evaluate how a suit of 15 climatic and socio-economic variables influence COVID-19 exponential growth-phase infection and mortality rates across 36 countries. We found that imports of goods and services, international tourism and the number of published scientific papers are good predictors of COVID-19 infection rates, indicating that more globalized countries may have experienced multiple and recurrent introductions of the virus. However, high-income countries showed lower mortality rates, suggesting that the consequences of the current pandemic will be worse for globalized low-income countries. International aid agencies could use this information to help mitigate the consequences of the current pandemic in the most vulnerable countries.

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 67%

Globalized low-income countries may experience higher COVID-19 mortality rates

Ortiz

2020

Preprint

“…As the virus spreads and additional climate regions witness outbreaks of COVID-19, it is possible that the climate signal might be weakened or even lost. This could happen as consequence of varying approaches to the management of the with geographical and climate factors (39,40). We expect that the SARS-CoV-2…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely constrained by climate

Araújo

Naimi

2020

Preprint

223

269

As new cases of COVID-19 are being confirmed pressure is mounting to increase understanding of the factors underlying the spread the disease. Using data on local transmissions until the 23rd of March 2020, we develop an ensemble of 200 ecological niche models to project monthly variation in climate suitability for spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout a typical climatological year. Although cases of COVID-19 are reported all over the world, most outbreaks display a pattern of clustering in relatively cool and dry areas. The predecessor SARS-CoV-1 was linked to similar climate conditions. Should the spread of SARS CoV-2 continue to follow current trends, asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks could be expected. According to the models, temperate warm and cold climates are more favorable to spread of the virus, whereas arid and tropical climates are less favorable. However, model uncertainties are still high across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South East Asia. While models of epidemic spread utilize human demography and mobility as predictors, climate can also help constrain the virus. This is because the environment can mediate human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and unsuitable climates can cause the virus to destabilize quickly, hence reducing its capacity to become epidemic.

“…On the contrary, high levels of relative humidity may play a key role in viral spread, resulting in an increased virulence. In this regard, Ficetola et al (2020) recently showed that the spread of SARS-COV-2 peaked in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a mean temperature of 5 • C and a mean humidity of 0.6-1.0 kPa, while it decreased in warmer and colder regions [19]. Other studies addressed the issue of viral diffusion paying more attention to the long-range transport of pathogens associated with air masses displacement.…”

Section: Covid-19: What Evidence Is There About a Possible Airborne Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

Airborne Transmission Route of COVID-19: Why 2 Meters/6 Feet of Inter-Personal Distance Could Not Be Enough

Setti

Passarini

Gennaro

et al. 2020

IJERPH

612

482

The COVID-19 pandemic caused the shutdown of entire nations all over the world. In addition to mobility restrictions of people, the World Health Organization and the Governments have prescribed maintaining an inter-personal distance of 1.5 or 2 m (about 6 feet) from each other in order to minimize the risk of contagion through the droplets that we usually disseminate around us from nose and mouth. However, recently published studies support the hypothesis of virus transmission over a distance of 2 m from an infected person. Researchers have proved the higher aerosol and surface stability of SARS-COV-2 as compared with SARS-COV-1 (with the virus remaining viable and infectious in aerosol for hours) and that airborne transmission of SARS-CoV can occur besides close-distance contacts. Indeed, there is reasonable evidence about the possibility of SARS-COV-2 airborne transmission due to its persistence into aerosol droplets in a viable and infectious form. Based on the available knowledge and epidemiological observations, it is plausible that small particles containing the virus may diffuse in indoor environments covering distances up to 10 m from the emission sources, thus representing a kind of aerosol transmission. On-field studies carried out inside Wuhan Hospitals showed the presence of SARS-COV-2 RNA in air samples collected in the hospitals and also in the surroundings, leading to the conclusion that the airborne route has to be considered an important pathway for viral diffusion. Similar findings are reported in analyses concerning air samples collected at the Nebraska University Hospital. On March 16th, we have released a Position Paper emphasizing the airborne route as a possible additional factor for interpreting the anomalous COVID-19 outbreaks in northern Italy, ranked as one of the most polluted areas in Europe and characterized by high particulate matter (PM) concentrations. The available information on the SARS-COV-2 spreading supports the hypothesis of airborne diffusion of infected droplets from person to person at a distance greater than two meters (6 feet). The inter-personal distance of 2 m can be reasonably considered as an effective protection only if everybody wears face masks in daily life activities.