Contested Modelling: a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability

Yearworth, Mike; Cornell, Sarah

doi:10.1002/sres.2315

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Notably, the CUL taxon can also include processes of digital transformation and artificial intelligence that increasingly restructure and shape the socio-cultural sphere of human societies. It also provides a locus for debating the challenge of reflexiveness in science, especially in fields where modelling plays a vital role in shaping knowledge and action (Yearworth and Cornell, 2016). For instance, future World-Earth modelling will have to grapple with ways to recognise Earth system science as an endogenous generator of scientific conceptions of "Earth".…”

Section: Socio-cultural Taxonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops

et al. 2021

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Abstract. In the Anthropocene, the social dynamics of human societies have become critical to understanding planetary-scale Earth system dynamics. The conceptual foundations of Earth system modelling have externalised social processes in ways that now hinder progress in understanding Earth resilience and informing governance of global environmental change. New approaches to global modelling of the human World are needed to address these challenges. The current modelling landscape is highly diverse and heterogeneous, ranging from purely biophysical Earth system models, to hybrid macro-economic integrated assessments models, to a plethora of models of socio-cultural dynamics. World–Earth models capable of simulating complex and entangled human–Earth system processes of the Anthropocene are currently not available. They will need to draw on and selectively integrate elements from the diverse range of fields and approaches; thus, future World–Earth modellers require a structured approach to identify, classify, select, combine and critique model components from multiple modelling traditions. Here, we develop taxonomies for ordering the multitude of societal and biophysical subsystems and their interactions. We suggest three taxa for modelled subsystems: (i) biophysical, where dynamics is usually represented by “natural laws” of physics, chemistry or ecology (i.e. the usual components of Earth system models); (ii) socio-cultural, dominated by processes of human behaviour, decision-making and collective social dynamics (e.g. politics, institutions, social networks and even science itself); and (iii) socio-metabolic, dealing with the material interactions of social and biophysical subsystems (e.g. human bodies, natural resources and agriculture). We show how higher-order taxonomies can be derived for classifying and describing the interactions between two or more subsystems. This then allows us to highlight the kinds of social–ecological feedback loops where new modelling efforts need to be directed. As an example, we apply the taxonomy to a stylised World–Earth system model that endogenises the socially transmitted choice of discount rates in a greenhouse gas emissions game to illustrate the effects of social–ecological feedback loops that are usually not considered in current modelling efforts. The proposed taxonomy can contribute to guiding the design and operational development of more comprehensive World–Earth models for understanding Earth resilience and charting sustainability transitions within planetary boundaries and other future trajectories in the Anthropocene.

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Section: Socio-cultural Taxonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops

et al. 2021

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“…Models based on statistics and mathematics can help manager monitor corporate performance, by measuring key metrics and managing operational data [14]. However, the modeling activity can easily become a black box when processes and results are owned by experts [31]. Making sure that the construction of the analytics solution and the ways results are communicated are as transparent and accessible as possible to non-analytical people helps mitigate this risk [15].…”

Section: Selection Of the Type Of Analytics To Be Implementedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business Analytics for Managing Performance of Microfinance Institutions: A Flexible Management of the Implementation Process

Piot-Lepetit

Nzongang

2021

Sustainability

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Microfinance institutions are social enterprises that focus on the provision of financial services to poor populations excluded from the conventional banking system. These organizations face a double-bottom line, dealing simultaneously with a financial and social objective. The challenge of putting it into action is great, especially when there is a need to involve all stakeholders and to replicate the experience to new communities. One way to sustain both financial performance and social impacts is to develop a business analytics solution aiming at measuring and expanding social impacts in a financially sustainable way. This paper describes main elements to be considered, in particular the organizational context, the development process, and implementation issues that would facilitate or impede the deployment of a business analytics initiative in practice. Finally, two main components of the implementation process are specifically pointed out: a behavioral fit of the business analytics solution to the cultural context of the organization, and the country where it is deployed, and a flexible commitment in the management of the business analytics initiative implementation.

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“…Whilst PSMs make use of systems modelling as a crucial component (Yearworth & White, 2014) it is also important to briefly touch on the role that 'expert' system modelling can take to support intervention in the sustainability context. In this respect having an adequate theoretical framework for assessing how models are used and when in the project lifecycle by experts is also crucial (Yearworth & Cornell, 2014). It is mentioned here to provide contrast between the expert mode of modelling, which is perhaps the prevalent way in which engineers work, and the participative and facilitative mode that is the subject of this paper.…”

Section: Effectiveness Of Expert Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability as a ‘super-wicked’ problem; opportunities and limits for engineering methodology

Yearworth

2015

Intelligent Buildings International

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Characterising sustainability as a "super-wicked" problem alerts us to issues beyond where current thinking about problem structuring enables engineers to deal with the merely wicked. Time is running out, no-one authority is in control, we are the cause of the problem anyway, and we inherently discount the future in our every day decision-making. When these are added to the usual definitions of wicked and messy problems, which only now are we addressing in engineering education, what are the potential limits and opportunities for the methodology of engineering in sustainability? Some modest extrapolations are discussed, based on the results from a recent research project in addressing energy planning in a city development zone. Analysis from another case study is also presented, which provides some triangulation of the ideas developed in this paper.

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Contested Modelling: a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability

Cited by 6 publications

References 59 publications

Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops

Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops

Business Analytics for Managing Performance of Microfinance Institutions: A Flexible Management of the Implementation Process

Sustainability as a ‘super-wicked’ problem; opportunities and limits for engineering methodology

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