Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning

Abstract

Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capabilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios -context scenarios (or -alternative futures‖) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary information on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria's long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct stepspreparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteristics of the future, definition of national security interests' zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analyses within the process.

Towards the exploration of future EU roles as a global security actor

“…Using this as baseline, applicable methods are used at various stages to meet the requirements of the specific study (cf. Allied Command Transformation, 2009;Ratchev, 2009). For example, the adaptation used in the Multiple Futures Project is called Multiple Futures Intellectual Framework and described in detail in Annex A to its final report (Allied Command Transformation, 2009).…”

Scenarios for Resource Allocation to Bulgaria’s Defense in the Horizon of 2035

“…NATO, through its Allied Command Transformation, coordinated another study on multiple futures [11]. The approach has been used also for national defense planning purposes [12,13].…”

“…The elaboration of "alternative futures" typically deals with the evolution of the security environment, the nature of military conflict, technological development, demographic trends, migration and social cohesion [9][10][11][12][13][14], while less attention is paid on the capacity of a country to sustain a defense effort. In Bulgaria's recent experience, however, the level of resources allocated to defense is often the driving factor for key decision of force structure and investments in new defense capabilities [15].…”

Cyber Threats in Social Networks and Users’ Response Dynamics

“…Изследвания прилагащи метода на сценариите с цел дефиниране на контекст в поглобален план с акцент върху сигурността и възможност за работа с частична неопределеност са публикувани и в работите [Ratchev, 2009], [Bizov, 2009], [Ratchev, Nerlich & Tagarev, 2012].…”