Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56–69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3–17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.

Freshwater conservation planning under climate change: demonstrating proactive approaches for Australian Odonata

“…Although lateral connections did not specifically emphasize latitudinal gradients, reserve selection benefited from even minor additional cross‐catchment connectivity because under severe climate change the predominant shift in the distribution of Odonata is along latitudinal gradients, rather than elevation (Bush et al . ). Our results support a corridor approach to climate change adaptation such as the Great Eastern Ranges (GER) initiative that has been primarily focused on terrestrial ecosystems (Mackey, Watson & Worboys ).…”

“…The majority of records were collected within the last 20 years (95%), but records as far back as 1950 were also used for some uncommon species (Bush et al . ). Rather than using species occurrence records directly, it is increasingly common for conservation planning to use the predicted distribution of species and communities as inputs for prioritization, thereby reducing the bias due to incomplete sampling (Linke et al .…”

Türkiye’deki <em>Calopteryx splendens</em> (Harris, 1782) (Insecta: Odonata) Alttürlerinin Ekolojik Niş Modellemesi

“…Bu zenginlik her ne kadar taksonomik bir takım çalışmalarla belirlenmeye çalışılsa da, tür ve özellikle alttürlerin dağılım alanlarının daha keskin sınırlarla belirlenmesi ve türlerin ekolojik isteklerinin belirlenmesi ile ilgili çalışmalar oldukça sınırlıdır [45,46]. Bilgisayar teknolojisinin kullanılmaya başlanması ve yeni ekolojik niş modelleme programlarının ortaya konulması birçok tür/alttürün (özellikle dağılım alanı net belirlenememiş) dağılım sınırlarının da belirlenmesine yardımcı olacağı gibi, taksonların ekolojik isteklerinin de belirlenmesinde önemli katkılar sağlayacaktır.…”

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

“…In Australia, significant temperature increases and reductions in rainfall (Hobday & Lough, ) are likely to alter habitat suitability for many species and a number of studies have applied SDMs to freshwater taxa, including fish (Bond et al ., ), crayfish (James et al ., ), and Odonata (Bush et al ., ). The capacity for freshwater communities to naturally adapt to climate change is a particular concern in New South Wales because the coastal rivers flow eastwards and do not encompass a large latitudinal range that may restrict movement to track suitable climatic conditions (Turak et al ., ; Bush et al ., ).…”