Contrarian deterministic effects on opinion dynamics: “the hung elections scenario”

Galam, Serge

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2003.10.041

Cited by 315 publications

(373 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Hence the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking. Such symmetry breaking transitions have also been observed earlier [8,9], in binary opinion models in which the ordered phase is one in which a consensus is reached. This is a symmetry broken phase while in the disordered phase, the opinions average out to zero.…”

supporting

confidence: 73%

“…The evolution usually leads to a steady state characterised either by a homogeneous state where people have similar opinion or a heterogeneous behaviour where people have widely different opinions. The interactions of the individuals in opinion dynamics models can be studied in terms of appropriate tunable parameters and it is of interest to observe whether such parameters can drive a phase transition in the system [6][7][8][9][10].While several different schemes have been proposed for possible evolution of opinions, a number of models have adopted the idea of kinetic exchanges in opinion formation [10][11][12][13][14]. In one such recently introduced model [10], the opinions of individuals, continuously varying from -1 to +1, were assumed to change after pairwise interactions.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Phase transitions in a two-parameter model of opinion dynamics with random kinetic exchanges

Sen

2011

Phys. Rev. E

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Recently, a model of opinion formation with kinetic exchanges has been proposed in which a spontaneous symmetry breaking transition was reported [M. Lallouache et al, Phys. Rev. E, 82 056112 (2010)]. We generalise the model to incorporate two parameters, λ, to represent conviction and µ, to represent the influencing ability of individuals. A phase boundary given by λ = 1 − µ/2 is obtained separating the symmetric and symmetry broken phases: the effect of the influencing term enhances the possibility of reaching a consensus in the society. The time scale diverges near the phase boundary in a power law manner. The order parameter and the condensate also show power law growth close to the phase boundary albeit with different exponents. The exponents in general change along the phase boundary indicating a non-universality. The relaxation times, however, become constant with increasing system size near the phase boundary indicating the absence of any diverging length scale. Consistently, the fluctuations remain finite but show strong dependence on the trajectory along which it is estimated. Opinion can be assumed to be a discrete or continuous variable and it dynamically evolves according to the interactions between the individuals. The change in the opinion of an individual may be effected by binary interactions or may be dictated by a set of other individuals. The evolution usually leads to a steady state characterised either by a homogeneous state where people have similar opinion or a heterogeneous behaviour where people have widely different opinions. The interactions of the individuals in opinion dynamics models can be studied in terms of appropriate tunable parameters and it is of interest to observe whether such parameters can drive a phase transition in the system [6][7][8][9][10].While several different schemes have been proposed for possible evolution of opinions, a number of models have adopted the idea of kinetic exchanges in opinion formation [10][11][12][13][14]. In one such recently introduced model [10], the opinions of individuals, continuously varying from -1 to +1, were assumed to change after pairwise interactions. A parameter representing "conviction" dictated the way opinions were exchanged. Beyond a threshold value of this parameter, the opinions of the individuals were seen to reach a consensus while below this, all individuals remained in a "neutral" state with their opinions attaining a zero value. Hence the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking. Such symmetry breaking transitions have also been observed earlier [8,9], in binary opinion models in which the ordered phase is one in which a consensus is reached. This is a symmetry broken phase while in the disordered phase, the opinions average out to zero. In [10], the so called disordered phase is very special in the sense the opinion of each individual is identically zero making the average equal to zero trivially. Obviously there is no degeneracy in this case and neither any fluctuation. Here, at the transition point, evidence of the ...

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confidence: 73%

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confidence: 99%

Phase transitions in a two-parameter model of opinion dynamics with random kinetic exchanges

Sen

2011

Phys. Rev. E

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“…The second level is internal and concerns the dynamics of interaction driven by people discussions. In real life although both levels are independent, active and interpenetrated simultaneously, here to study specifically the laws governing the internal dynamics resulting from people discussions, we arbitrarily decoupled them without loss of generality [7,4].…”

Section: Our Model Of Opinion Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

From 2000 Bush–Gore to 2006 Italian elections: voting at fifty-fifty and the contrarian effect

Galam

2007

Qual Quant

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A sociophysical model for opinion dynamics is shown to embody a series of recent western hung national votes all set at the unexpected and very improbable edge of a fifty-fifty score. It started with the Bush-Gore 2000 American presidential election, followed by the 2002 Stoiber-Schrőder, then the 2005 Schrőder-Merkel German elections, and finally the 2006 Prodi-Berlusconi Italian elections. In each case, the country was facing drastic choices, the running competing parties were advocating very different programs and millions of voters were involved. Moreover, polls were given a substantial margin for the predicted winner. While all these events were perceived as accidental and isolated, our model suggests that indeed they are deterministic and obey to one single universal phenomena associated to the effect of contrarian behavior on the dynamics of opinion forming. The not hung Bush-Kerry 2005 presidential election is shown to belong to the same universal frame. To conclude, the existence of contrarians hints at the repetition of hung elections in the near future.

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“…They have assumed that at every time step an agent followed the rules of the Sznajd model with probability p, while with a probability 1 − p rules were not fulfilled (an agent adopted the opposite option than the one dictated by the rules) [5]. Such a modification has led to so called contrarians behavior [6]. It has been shown that for p > p c the system was bistable with a probability density of magnetization having two maxima at m = m ± [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opinion dynamics as a movement in a bistable potential

Nyczka

Cisło

Sznajd-Weron

2012

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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In this paper we investigate the model of opinion dynamics with anticonformity on a complete graph. We show that below some threshold value of anticonformal behavior spontaneous reorientations occur between two stable states. Dealing with a complete graph allows us also for analytical treatment. We show that opinion dynamics can be understood as a movement of a public opinion in a symmetric bistable effective potential. We focus also on the spontaneous transitions between stable states and show that a typical waiting time can be observed.

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Contrarian deterministic effects on opinion dynamics: “the hung elections scenario”

Cited by 315 publications

References 16 publications

Phase transitions in a two-parameter model of opinion dynamics with random kinetic exchanges

Phase transitions in a two-parameter model of opinion dynamics with random kinetic exchanges

From 2000 Bush–Gore to 2006 Italian elections: voting at fifty-fifty and the contrarian effect

Opinion dynamics as a movement in a bistable potential

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