Contrasting Behaviors between the Rapidly Intensifying and Slowly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Basins

Abstract

Based on 35-yr (1982-2016) best track and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme data, this study examined climatology of rapidly intensifying (RI) and slowly intensifying (SI) events as well as their time evolutions of storm-related, and environmental parameters for tropical cyclones (TCs) in both North Atlantic (AL) and Eastern North Pacific (EP) basins. Major hurricanes were intensified mainly through RI while tropical depression and tropical storms through SI. The percentage of TCs that underwent RI peaks in the late hurricane season while that underwent SI peaks early. For the first time in the literature, this study found that RI events have significantly different storm-related and environmental characteristics than SI events for before-, during-, and after-event stages. In both AL and EP basins, RI events always intensify significantly faster during the previous 12 hours, locate further south, and have warmer sea surface and 200 hPa temperatures, greater ocean heat content, larger 200 hPa divergence, weaker vertical wind shear, and weaker 200 hPa westerly flow than SI events for all event-relative stages. In the AL basin, RI events have larger low-level and mid-level relative humidity and larger 850 hPa relative vorticity than SI events for all event-relative stages in the AL and most event-relative stages in the EP. RI events are associated with more convectively unstable atmosphere and further away from their maximum potential intensities than SI events for most event-relative stages in the AL and for all event-relative stages in the EP.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensification: Regional Drivers and Trends

“…Our findings are consistent with Hendricks et al. (2010) and Wang and Jiang (2021) who identified similar average differences in SST between RI and slower intensifiers.…”

“…We have only examined our variables individually, and next steps involve identifying combinations (e.g., Bhatia et al., 2022) using joint PDFs. The results may also vary by month and basin (Wang & Jiang, 2021). Although we estimated shear and RH based on the SHIPS definitions, the results may vary with different variable definitions (Nebylitsa et al., 2023).…”

“…Statistical relationships between environmental conditions for RI versus slower intensification have been investigated by Hendricks et al. (2010), Wang and Jiang (2021), and Richardson et al. (2022).…”

How Do Weak, Misaligned Tropical Cyclones Evolve Toward Alignment? A Multi‐Case Study Using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

“…Rapid intensification (RI, defined by an increase in maximum‐sustained wind ≥30 kt in 24 hr; Kaplan & DeMaria, 2003), however, still has comparatively poor forecasts (Cangialosi et al., 2020; Fischer et al., 2019; Trabing & Bell, 2020). More than 75% of all RI events initially have intensities of 55 kt or less (Wang & Jiang, 2021; cf., Figure 6). The poor prediction of RI is at least partly linked to these weak, early stage TCs that often have a configuration typically thought of as unfavorable for strengthening––the vortex is misaligned and precipitation is asymmetrically distributed around the surface center due to vertical wind shear (Alvey et al., 2015; S. S. Chen et al., 2006; Corbosiero & Molinari, 2002; Fischer et al., 2018, 2022; Reasor et al., 2004).…”

Impacts of model resolution and ocean coupling on mean and eddy momentum transfer during the rapid intensification of super‐typhoon Muifa (2011)

“…RI occurs at least once during most intense TCs′ lifetimes. On average, 37% of WP TCs (Wang and Zhou, 2008 ), 42% of EP TCs (Wang and Jiang, 2021 ), and 31% of AL TCs (Kaplan and DeMaria, 2003 ) undergo RI. Though all category‐4 and ‐5 hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS: Simpson and Saffir, 1974 ) and 90% of super‐typhoons (category‐5 typhoons on SSHS) undergo RI at least once (Wang and Zhou, 2008 ), RI remains challenging to predict.…”