Contrasting responses to a climate regime change by sympatric, ice-dependent predators

Younger, Jane L.; Hoff, John van den; Wienecke, Bárbara; Hindell, Mark A.; Miller, Karen J.

doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0630-3

Cited by 21 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Our model ignored the dispersal processes because the Pointe Géologie colony of emperor penguin is the colony where some marking was done for demographic studies and no observation of marked animals was made in neighboring colonies situated at 200 km for the nearest one. Recent genetic studies also suggested dispersal occurs but at low annual rates (≈0.15–0.17% per year; Cristofari et al ., ; Younger et al ., ). Here, we first describe the likelihoods for the three datasets shown in Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins

Abadi

Barbraud

Giménez

2016

Global Change Biology

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Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture-recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971-1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins

Abadi

Barbraud

Giménez

2016

Global Change Biology

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“…A coalescent study of East Antarctic Weddell seals indicated that the effective population size in this region has been stable since 80 kya (Younger, ). Over this period there were several major changes in climatic regime, including the LGM (Fig.…”

Section: Antarctic Sea Ice Breedersmentioning

confidence: 97%

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

Younger

Emmerson

Miller

2015

Global Change Biology

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The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia.

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“…Details of the tissue samples collected from emperor penguins at Halley Bay, Fold Island, Auster, Amanda Bay and Pointe Géologie can be found in Ref. (Younger, van den Hoff, Wienecke, Hindell, & Miller, 2016;Younger, Clucas, et al, 2015). All other samples were blood samples.…”

Section: Sampling and Sequencingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Emperor penguins have a relatively continuous distribution around Antarctica with most colonies being situated within the range of individuals foraging from adjacent colonies (Fretwell et al, 2012) ( Figure 1b). Their fast-ice breeding habitat is highly ephemeral, leading to changes in colony locations over years (Fretwell, Trathan, Wienecke, & Kooyman, 2014;LaRue et al, 2015;Trathan, Fretwell, & Stonehouse, 2011) and millennia (Younger, Clucas, et al, 2015;Younger et al, 2016). The low levels of genetic differentiation among emperor colonies likely reflect the need for flexibility in breeding location.…”

Section: Breeding Habitat Quality Continuity and Ephemeralitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative population genomics reveals key barriers to dispersal in Southern Ocean penguins

et al. 2018

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The mechanisms that determine patterns of species dispersal are important factors in the production and maintenance of biodiversity. Understanding these mechanisms helps to forecast the responses of species to environmental change. Here, we used a comparative framework and genomewide data obtained through RAD‐Seq to compare the patterns of connectivity among breeding colonies for five penguin species with shared ancestry, overlapping distributions and differing ecological niches, allowing an examination of the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers governing dispersal patterns. Our findings show that at‐sea range and oceanography underlie patterns of dispersal in these penguins. The pelagic niche of emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri), king (A. patagonicus), Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and chinstrap (P. antarctica) penguins facilitates gene flow over thousands of kilometres. In contrast, the coastal niche of gentoo penguins (P. papua) limits dispersal, resulting in population divergences. Oceanographic fronts also act as dispersal barriers to some extent. We recommend that forecasts of extinction risk incorporate dispersal and that management units are defined by at‐sea range and oceanography in species lacking genetic data.

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Contrasting responses to a climate regime change by sympatric, ice-dependent predators

Cited by 21 publications

References 72 publications

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

Comparative population genomics reveals key barriers to dispersal in Southern Ocean penguins

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