Contrasting the value of targeted versus area-wide mosquito control scenarios to limit arbovirus transmission with human mobility patterns based on different tropical urban population centers

Abstract

Vector control is still our primary intervention for both prevention and mitigation of epidemics of many vector-borne diseases. Efficiently targeting control measures is important since control can involve substantial economic costs. Targeting is not always straightforward, as transmission of vector-borne diseases is affected by various types of host movement. Here we assess how taking daily commuting patterns into consideration can help improve vector control efforts. We examine three tropical urban centers (San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta) that have recently been exposed to Zika and/or dengue infections and consider whether the distribution of human populations and resulting commuting flows affects the optimal scale at which control interventions should be implemented. We developed a stochastic, spatial model and investigated four control scenarios. The scenarios differed in the spatial extent of their implementation and were: 1) a response at the level of an individual neighborhood; 2) a response targeted at a neighborhood in which infected humans were detected and the one with which it was most strongly connected by human movement; 3) a limited area-wide response where all neighborhoods within a certain radius of the focal area were included; and 4) a collective response where all participating neighborhoods implemented control. The relative effectiveness of the scenarios varied only slightly between different settings, with the number of infections averted over time increasing with the scale of implementation. This difference depended on the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level. At low levels of efficacy, the scenarios mirrored each other in infections averted. At high levels of efficacy, impact increased with the scale of the intervention. As a result, the choice between scenarios will not only be a function of the amount of effort decision-makers are willing to invest, but largely epend on the overall effectiveness of vector control approaches.

Using spatial genetics to quantify mosquito dispersal for control programs

“…Quantifying mosquito dispersal of both wild-type and introduced mosquito strains in any given landscape is, therefore, critical for the considerations of the size of the treatment area and the surrounding buffer zones. Those considerations complement practical operational deliberations of the availability of human and economic resources for implementation and the sample sizes required to capture epidemiological endpoints [ 12 , 13 ].…”

The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study

“…Vector control is of great importance in preventing and mitigating dengue burden [ 10 , 11 ]. A previous study conducted in Sri Lanka revealed that mosquito vector density could be a mediator of intensified dengue control measures and dengue incidence [ 15 ].…”

“…The experience in Guangzhou, especially the effective integrated intervention strategy with the cross-departmental collaboration and supervision from senior officials could also be beneficial for other locations with dengue epidemics. Vector control is of great importance in preventing and mitigating dengue burden [10,11]. A previous study conducted in Sri Lanka revealed that mosquito vector density could be a mediator of intensified dengue control measures and dengue incidence [15].…”

“…However, dengue vaccination programs are only recommended for areas with a high dengue burden, considering the vaccine safety issues for seronegative individuals and low vaccine efficacy [7][8][9]. Even as effective vaccines become available, vector control is crucial in dengue prevention and mitigation [10,11]. Previous studies have reported the effectiveness of interventions which included vector control measures in locations such as two Chinese cities of Guangzhou [12,13] and Ningbo [14], Sri Lanka [15], and Singapore [16].…”

Using Paired Agent-Based Simulations To Test Strategies For Limiting The Effects Of Epidemics

“…As mosquitoes only fly short distances and usually remain near where they hatched [5], [6], [7], [8], human movement is a key component of vector-borne epidemiology [9]. In particular, transmission is influenced by social connections and the transport system [10], [11], [12], [13].…”