Contribution of local rarity and climatic suitability to local extinction and colonization varies with species traits

Abstract

Changes in species distributions through local extinction and colonization events are a major consequence of climate change. The mechanisms underlying these processes, however, are yet to be fully understood. We investigate the effects of climatic suitability and local rarity on local extinction and colonization of British birds. We test the hypothesis that local extinction and colonization on decadal scales are driven by both climatic suitability and the prevalence of the species within an area and that the balance between these two is affected by species traits. We use spatially explicit conditional autoregressive models to determine the effect size of local rarity and climatic suitability (extracted from climate envelope models) on local extinction and colonization events. We then use phylogenetically constrained, generalized least-square models to estimate the association of extinction and colonization predictors with body mass, clutch size and national range of each species. Both local rarity and climatic suitability of an area contributed to local extinctions and colonizations, but the importance of these predictors varied between species. This interspecific variation was explained, in part, by species traits, in particular national range, which influenced the importance of local rarity and climatic suitability to both local extinction and colonization. These results further our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying changes in species occupancy due to climate change. This can inform predictive models as well as contribute to more focussed avian conservation efforts.

The effects of weather variability on patterns of genetic diversity in Tasmanian bettongs

“…Species distributions and population dynamics are affected by short‐term weather patterns in a wide range of taxa, such as butterflies (Bennie et al, 2013), plants (Hereford et al, 2017), carnivorous marsupials (Fancourt et al, 2015) and migratory bird species (Bateman et al, 2016), and hence weather may also be a good predictor of genetic diversity in these groups. However, life history traits can moderate the effects of climatic and weather variables on local colonization and extinction dynamics (White et al, 2018) and species distributions (Bateman et al, 2016). Thus, to determine the broader utility of weather‐based SDMs for predicting genetic diversity, and to further investigate the relationship between genetic diversity and short‐term weather patterns, similar studies to ours should be conducted on a phylogenetically diverse range of species with varying life history traits and species ranges.…”

The contribution of geographically common and rare species to the spatial distribution of biodiversity

“…For example, as well as population sizes, geographic rarity is used as a criterion for IUCN red listing (IUCN, 2012) and in the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas (Eken et al, 2004; Sun et al, 2022). Geographic rarity can determine how a species responds to anthropogenic activity (La Sorte, 2006), as well as being associated with extinction risk (He, 2012; Pearson et al, 2014; Purvis et al, 2000) and local changes in occupancy (White et al, 2018).…”

“…This is of concern given the global decline of many common species (Gaston & Fuller, 2007). However, if common species are consistently used to identify conservation priority areas and diversity hotspots, then we may be jeopardising the future of rare species (Jetz & Rahbek, 2002), as range size is the most important predictor of changes in occurrence and extinction risk (Purvis et al, 2000; White et al, 2018). Furthermore, given the proportional increase in rare species in communities through global change‐associated immigration (Jones et al, 2020), quantifying the contribution of rare species to biodiversity will be relevant to the prediction of future biodiversity patterns.…”