Contributions of climate change to cereal yields in Tibet, 1993–2017

Abstract

Climate change is a global environmental crisis, but there have been few studies of the effects of climate change on cereal yields on the Tibetan Plateau. We used data from meteorological stations and statistical yearbooks to assess the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected: fixed-effects model, first-difference models, and linear detrending models. We analyzed the impacts of climate change (including the minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days and solar radiation) on cereal yields in Tibet from 1993 to 2017 at the county, prefecture-level city, and autonomous region scales. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal yields in Tibet to temperature (minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than their sensitivity to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance varied in different regions. The impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were positive in all cities, apart from the negative impacts of growing degree days on cereal yields in Lhasa. The impacts of climate trends on cereal yields in Tibet were positive and the results were in the range of 1.5%-4.8%. Among the three types of model, the fixed-effects model was the most robust and the linear detrending model performed better than the first-difference model. The robustness of the first-difference model decreased after adding the interaction terms between different climate variables. Our findings will help in implementing more spatially targeted agricultural adaptations to cope with the impacts of climate change on the agro-ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.

Impact of recent climate change on corn, rice, and wheat in southeastern USA

“…The positive effects of T min compensated for the negative effects of T max on corn, resulting in an overall yield increase. These findings agree with Ruane et al 107 , Kukal et al 108 , Petersen 35 , and Ding and Shi 109 , but contradict Lin et al 110 , and Chen et al 111 . Disagreement in the literature could be attributable to a number of factors associated with different studies such as different study periods taken, spatial diversity (different growing seasons), the magnitude of change in climatic variables, diversity in crop models, and statistical approaches 112 – 116 .…”

“…The positive effect of T min outpaced the negative effect of T max on rice yield, increasing the rice yield. Similar findings showing a net beneficial effect of changing temperatures on rice yield were reported by Kim and Pang 141 , Petersen 35 , and Ding and Shi 109 .…”

Distribution Patterns of Gymnosperm Species along Elevations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: Effects of Climatic Seasonality, Energy–Water, and Physical Tolerance Variables

“…The QTP experiences a concentration of precipitation, with amounts ranging from 1000 mm (in the southeast) to 50 mm (in the northwest) between June and September [56]. The increase in precipitation was most obvious in counties bordering the Tibetan Plateau, such as Zayu, Kangmar, Nagarze, and Lhozhag, where it was 20 mm 10a −1 [57]. The distribution of the most diverse gymnosperms in the southern QTP may be connected to climatic conditions and elevation variations.…”

Dynamic changes and impacts of accumulated temperature on the Tibetan plateau from 1980 to 2018 based on the fusion of simulation and observation data

“…However, obtaining temperature data on the Tibetan Plateau is more challenging than in flat areas due to the geographical environment. A limited number of observation stations on the plateau are available for research [ 11 , 12 ]. Satellite remote sensing monitoring provides an alternative source of observations [ 13 ], but this kind of data has a relatively short time span, making it inadequate for studying long-term climate variations [ 14 ].…”