Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change

Reader, M. C.; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Shepherd, Theodore G.

doi:10.1002/2013gl057776

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The surface temperature of the sea https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [28][29][30][31] Ice coating https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modellingand-prediction/marine [32][33][34] Monthly average long-wave radiation https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climatedata/outgoing-longwave-radiation-olr-hirs [14,35,36] Monthly average near-infrared beam downward sun flux https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climatedata/outgoing-longwave-radiation-olr-hirs [37,38] Average monthly precipitation https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/ getpage.pl [32,39] Monthly average evaporation rate https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [27,[39][40][41][42][43] Earth surface wind speed https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [6,43] Earth surface cloud amount https: //www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i [44] Average temperature https://climate.weather.gc.ca [5,45,46] Relative humidity https: //www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i [7,45] Total carbon dioxide emissions https://www.ecmwf.int/en/annual-report-2014/ developing-european-infrastructure [47] Soil moisture https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [48,49] Land-sea mask https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [38] Mean sea level pressure https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded [50] Snow density https: //www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i [38] Total column ozone https: //www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/set-i [51] Cooling degree-days https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climatedata/outgoing-longwave-radiation-olr-hirs …”

Section: Indicators Official Source Literature Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Climate Change Model and Extreme Weather Model Based on a Machine Learning Method

Ren

et al. 2020

Symmetry

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The emergence of climate change (CC) is affecting and changing the development of the natural environment, biological species, and human society. In order to better understand the influence of climate change and provide convincing evidence, the need to quantify the impact of climate change is urgent. In this paper, a climate change model is constructed by using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. To verify the relevance between climate change and extreme weather (EW), the EW model was built using a support vector machine. In the case study of Canada, its level of climate change was calculated as being 0.2241 (“normal”), and it was found that the factors of CO2 emission, average temperature, and sea surface temperature are significant to Canada’s climate change. In 2025, the climate level of Canada will become “a little bad” based on the prediction results. Then, the Pearson correlation value is calculated as being 0.571, which confirmed the moderate positive correlation between climate change and extreme weather. This paper provides a strong reference for comprehensively understanding the influences brought about by climate change.

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Section: Indicators Official Source Literature Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Climate Change Model and Extreme Weather Model Based on a Machine Learning Method

Ren

et al. 2020

Symmetry

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“…Although anthropogenic ODS are the main cause of ozone depletion over the last decades, other species such as methane, nitrous dioxide (N 2 O), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) affect stratospheric ozone chemistry as well (e.g. Haigh and Pyle, 1982;Portmann et al, 2012;Revell et al, 2012;Reader et al, 2013). Randeniya et al (2002) argued that increasing concentrations of methane can amplify ozone production in the lower stratosphere via photochemical production, though increases of water vapour from methane oxidation may have the opposite effect (Dvortsov and Solomon, 2001).…”

Section: F Iglesias-suarez Et Al: Stratospheric Ozone Change and Rementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) chemistry is important in the middle-upper stratosphere for ozone; thus, variations and trends in the source gas (N 2 O) may have a substantial influence on ozone levels (e.g. Ravishankara et al, 2009;Portmann et al, 2012;Revell et al, 2012).…”

Section: F Iglesias-suarez Et Al: Stratospheric Ozone Change and Rementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, RCP8.5 2100 ozone levels relative to present-day increase 8.3 DU, due to a slow down of the ozone catalytic loss cycles, linked to the stratospheric cooling (e.g. Haigh and Pyle, 1982;Portmann and Solomon, 2007;Revell et al, 2012;Reader et al, 2013). In the lower stratosphere, ozone levels change little (−0.8 DU) by 2100 relative to the presentday for the RCP2.6, though decrease by −8.5 DU under the RCP8.5 scenario, likely due to the acceleration of the BDC.…”

Section: Past Modelled and Future Projected Total Column Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

Iglesias‐Suarez¹,

Young²,

Wild³

2015

Preprint

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Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations are evaluated in the recent past (1980–2000), and examined in the long-term (1850–2100) using the Representative Concentration Pathways low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the period 2000–2100. ACCMIP multi-model mean total column ozone (TCO) trends compare favourably, within uncertainty estimates, against observations. Particularly good agreement is seen in the Antarctic austral spring (−11.9 % dec−1 compared to observed ~ −13.8 ± 11 % dec−1), although larger deviations are found in the Arctic's boreal spring (−2.1 % dec−1 compared to observed ~ −5.3 ± 3 % dec−1). The simulated ozone hole has cooled the lower stratosphere during austral spring in the last few decades (−2.2 K dec−1). This cooling results in Southern Hemisphere summertime tropospheric circulation changes captured by an increase in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index (1.27 hPa dec−1). In the future, the interplay between the ozone hole recovery and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations may result in the SAM index returning to pre-ozone hole levels or even with a more positive phase from around the second half of the century (−0.4 and 0.3 hPa dec−1 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). By 2100, stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations is greatest in the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (37.7 and 16.1 DU difference between the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively), and smallest over the tropics and Antarctica continent (2.5 and 8.1 DU respectively). Future TCO changes in the tropics are mainly determined by the upper stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations, due to a large compensation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric column ozone changes in the two RCP scenarios. These results demonstrate how changes in stratospheric ozone are tightly linked to climate and show the benefit of including the processes interactively in climate models.

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“…The modeling efforts are mostly aimed at understanding the ozone changes between short periods during the preindustrial and present times. These changes were driven by a strong influence of manmade halogen containing ozone-depleting substances (hODS) on stratospheric ozone and enhanced anthropogenic emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

et al. 2020

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The ozone layer is well observed since the 1930s from the ground and, since the 1980s, by satellite-based instruments. The evolution of ozone in the past is important because of its dramatic influence on the biosphere and humans but has not been known for most of the time, except for some measurements of near-surface ozone since the end of the 19th century. This gap can be filled by either modeling or paleo reconstructions. Here, we address ozone layer evolution during the early 20th century. This period was very interesting due to a simultaneous increase in solar and anthropogenic activity, as well as an observed but not explained substantial global warming. For the study, we exploited the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM driven by all known anthropogenic and natural forcing agents, as well as their combinations. We obtain a significant global scale increase in the total column ozone by up to 12 Dobson Units and an enhancement of about 20% of the near-surface ozone over the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that the total column ozone changes during this period were mainly driven by enhanced solar ultra violet (UV) radiation, while near-surface ozone followed the evolution of anthropogenic ozone precursors. This finding can be used to constrain the solar forcing magnitude.

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Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change

Cited by 10 publications

References 46 publications

A Simplified Climate Change Model and Extreme Weather Model Based on a Machine Learning Method

A Simplified Climate Change Model and Extreme Weather Model Based on a Machine Learning Method

Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

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