Control process development on the ground of project value dynamics laws

Bugrov, Olexander; Бугрова, Олена

doi:10.15587/2706-5448.2020.200995

Cited by 2 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In [40], it is noted that "the economist Georgescu-Roegen's work on entropy and thermodynamics in economic processes demonstrates how natural resources are degraded by economic activity". The theory of the dynamics of the value of the project is based on three laws that closely correspond with the laws of thermodynamics [6]. Consequently, this aspect of the methodology is consistent with the statement given in [41] that in ecological economics the laws of thermodynamics profile the laws of economics.…”

Section: Materials and Methods Of Researchsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…As indicated in [5], "value-creating innovations are pursued to maximize the value that an innovation holds from the customers' point of view" is the indicator that adequately reflects the value of the project both from the perspective of the consumer and the investor and other interested parties to the project [6] So, it is advisable to develop research in the field of analysis of the dynamics of the value of a project in conditions of uncertainty on the basis of this indicator.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Traditional EVM does not cover post-construction project data. At the same time, the benefits of the project manifest themselves mainly after the commissioning of the construction object, which means that it is necessary to analyze how engineering solutions affect the efficiency during the entire project cycle [6]. The recent idea of creating Earned Green Value Management (EGVM) aims to cover the entire project cycle and take into account the impact on the environment [31].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The recent idea of creating Earned Green Value Management (EGVM) aims to cover the entire project cycle and take into account the impact on the environment [31]. However, this model does not take into account the cost of money in time and is not an assessment of the economic efficiency of the project [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, it should be emphasized that "construction is the most difficult activity in terms of its dynamic and complex nature" [34]. Thus, the issue requires a comprehensive solution using the theory of the dynamics of the project value [6] and the value engineering methodology [35].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of conceptual model of project value dynamics analysis in conditions of uncertainty

Bugrov

Бугрова

2021

EEJET

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A conceptual model for analyzing the dynamics of the value of the project, achieved as a result of engineering, under conditions of uncertainty has been developed. In the methodological context, the proposed approach is based on an array of isovalues, each of which corresponds to its own level of optimism in forecasting the cash flow for the project. With the increase in the efficiency of the project due to engineering, the entire array of iso-value lines’ changes its geometrical position, moving further from the origin (in the four-dimensional space "time-benefit-cost-risk"). The proposed model includes three stages. At the first stage, input information is collected and the corresponding analysis is initiated. The result of the second stage is a multivariate cash flow forecast and calculation of the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) and its changes for each scenario. The third stage provides the calculation of the expected BCR and its change, an assessment of the risk of making an erroneous decision and changing this risk as a result of the engineering session. The model makes it possible to calculate the achieved proportion of the static and dynamic vectors of change in the value of the project, which is one of the key manifestations of the scientific novelty of the work. In the example considered, the share of the dynamic vector of growth in the value of the project was found to be 35.47 %. The model has an environmental property - the assessment of the success of value engineering under conditions of uncertainty is carried out on the basis of the annual total benefits and the annual total costs throughout the project cycle. Thus, the analysis takes into account the impact of the project on the environment, which is reflected in the risk assessment. The given case testifies to the feasibility of applying the model in the practice of engineering the value of construction projects.

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Section: Materials and Methods Of Researchsupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Development of conceptual model of project value dynamics analysis in conditions of uncertainty

Bugrov

Бугрова

2021

EEJET

Self Cite

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A Novel Perspective on Prioritizing Investment Projects under Future Uncertainty: Integrating Robustness Analysis with the Net Present Value Model

Shao,

Sorourkhah

2024

Economics

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Investment decisions are important because they involve significant capital in a business. According to the literature, experts agree that a net present value (NPV) approach is better suited for evaluating investment projects’ feasibility. Practically, the NPV method does not account for uncertainty in calculating the expected return on investment. Investments may be susceptible to random events such as natural disasters or economic instability that hinder the expected return on investment. While previous research has attempted to address uncertainty using fuzzy approaches, these approaches mainly focus on data-centric uncertainty. The focus of this study is on the uncertain environmental conditions where changes in macroeconomic, political, and other indicators can influence decision outcomes. This study conceptualizes and implements combining the NPV approach with robust analysis as an efficient and practical method in decision-making under uncertainty and unpredictability. The proposed algorithm was implemented in a case study on investment project selection in Tannakabon, Iran. The results indicate that considering future scenarios, the restaurant investment project is the most suitable among the seven projects. In contrast, the cafe investment project is the least appropriate option available.

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Control process development on the ground of project value dynamics laws

Cited by 2 publications

References 16 publications

Development of conceptual model of project value dynamics analysis in conditions of uncertainty

Development of conceptual model of project value dynamics analysis in conditions of uncertainty

A Novel Perspective on Prioritizing Investment Projects under Future Uncertainty: Integrating Robustness Analysis with the Net Present Value Model

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