In this paper, we follow a similar procedure as proposed by Koval (SPE J 3(2): [145][146][147][148][149][150][151][152][153][154] 1963) to analytically model CO 2 transfer between the overriding carbon dioxide layer and the brine layer below it. We show that a very thin diffusive layer on top separates the interface from a gravitationally unstable convective flow layer below it. Flow in the gravitationally unstable layer is described by the theory of Koval, a theory that is widely used and which describes miscible displacement as a pseudo two-phase flow problem. The pseudo two-phase flow problem provides the average concentration of CO 2 in the brine as a function of distance. We find that downstream of the diffusive layer, the solution of the convective part of the model, is a rarefaction solution that starts at the saturation corresponding to the highest value of the fractional-flow function. The model uses two free parameters, viz., a dilution factor and a gravity fingering index. A comparison of the Koval model with the horizontally averaged concentrations obtained from 2-D numerical simulations provides a correlation for the two parameters with the Rayleigh number. The obtained scaling relations can be used in numerical simulators to account for the density-driven natural convection, which cannot be currently captured because the grid cells are typically orders of magnitude