2018
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0024.1
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Convective-Scale Perturbation Growth across the Spectrum of Convective Regimes

Abstract: Convection-permitting ensembles have led to improved forecasts of many atmospheric phenomena. However, to fully utilize these forecasts the dependence of predictability on synoptic conditions needs to be understood. In this study, convective regimes are diagnosed based on a convective time scale that identifies the degree to which convection is in equilibrium with the large-scale forcing. Six convective cases are examined in a convection-permitting ensemble constructed using the Met Office Unified Model. The e… Show more

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Cited by 31 publications
(63 citation statements)
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“…This diagnostic thus requires careful interpretation unless either (a) a neighbourhood is applied to the MSD (for more on neighbourhood‐based approaches see Ebert, ) or (b) the MSD is considered in components representing the common, control and perturbed parts (as in Flack et al . ). The MSD is computed here as MSD=PpPc2Pc2, where P c is the hourly accumulation of precipitation in a control forecast and P p is that in a perturbed forecast.…”
Section: Diagnosticsmentioning
confidence: 65%
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“…This diagnostic thus requires careful interpretation unless either (a) a neighbourhood is applied to the MSD (for more on neighbourhood‐based approaches see Ebert, ) or (b) the MSD is considered in components representing the common, control and perturbed parts (as in Flack et al . ). The MSD is computed here as MSD=PpPc2Pc2, where P c is the hourly accumulation of precipitation in a control forecast and P p is that in a perturbed forecast.…”
Section: Diagnosticsmentioning
confidence: 65%
“…Moreover, in studies of some more recent convective‐scale cases using this style of perturbation with newer model configurations, Flack et al . () found no problems with the specification of initial seeds.…”
Section: Modelmentioning
confidence: 97%
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“…() and Flack et al . (). In section 3, we use objective verification to evaluate a month‐long trial to determine the differences between the two ensembles and assess their diurnal cycles.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%