Convective-Scale Warn-on-Forecast System

Abstract

Warnings about convective-scale hazards are currently based on observations, but the time has come to develop warning methods in which numerical model forecasts play a much larger role.

30-second-Update 100-m-Mesh Data Assimilation Experiments: A Sudden Local Rain Case in Kobe on 11 September 2014

“…Among others, much attention has been paid to skillful NWP for severe weather (e.g., Kain et al 2006, Hohenegger andSchär 2007a, b;Kawabata et al 2007;Roberts and Lean 2008). Recently, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF; Evensen 1994Evensen , 2003 has become a major method in data assimilation (DA), and has contributed to investigate convection-permitting regional NWP (e.g., Zhang et al 2007;Stensrud et al 2009Stensrud et al , 2013Clark et al 2010;Schwartz et al 2010;Baldauf et al 2011;Melhauser and Zhang 2012;Yussolf et al 2013, Kunii 2014a, Weng and Zhang 2016.…”

“…Among others, much attention has been paid to skillful NWP for severe weather (e.g., Kain et al 2006, Hohenegger and Schär 2007a, b;Kawabata et al 2007;Roberts and Lean 2008). Recently, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF;Evensen 1994Evensen , 2003 has become a major method in data assimilation (DA), and has contributed to investigate convection-permitting regional NWP (e.g., Zhang et al 2007;Stensrud et al 2009Stensrud et al , 2013Clark et al 2010;Schwartz et al 2010; Baldauf et al 2011;Melhauser and Zhang 2012; Yussolf et al 2013, Kunii 2014a, Weng and Zhang 2016.Recently, Miyoshi et al (2016aMiyoshi et al ( , 2016b reported an innovation of the "Big Data Assimilation" (BDA) technology, implementing a 30-second-update, 100-m-mesh local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF;Hunt et al 2007) to assimilate data from a Phased Array Weather Radar (PAWR) at Osaka University (Ushio et al 2014) into regional NWP models known as the Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model (JMA-NHM, Saito et al 2006Saito et al , 2007 and the Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment-Regional Model (SCALE-RM, Nishizawa et al 2015). The PAWR captures the rapid development of convective activities every 30 seconds at approximately 100-m resolution.…”

Automated Processing of Doppler Radar Data for Severe Weather Warnings

“…This was done in order not to "cry wolf" and "alarm the public". An emerging source of information is the use of high resolution NWP (Hoekstra et al 2011;Li, 2010;Stensrud et al 2009). While phase errors exist (time and location of the thunderstorm), the models appear to be able to capture the morphology of the storm (see Fig.…”

Probabilistic landslide ensemble prediction systems: lessons to be learned from hydrology

“…Landslide early warnings expand the predictions of forecasting systems and must also cover dissemination and response strategies (UNEP, 2012). Warnings can be considered calls for the public to take protective action, and the timescale of a warning depends on the associated weather event (Stensrud et al, 2009).…”