2011
DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.08.007
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Conventional N-, L-, and R-tests of earthquake forecasting models without simulated catalogs

Abstract: We propose a new procedure for testing the expected number (N-test), log likelihood (L-test), and log likelihood-ratio (R-test) of seismicity models. In these tests, scores obtained from observed earthquakes are compared with distributions of scores estimated from earthquakes expected from the models under test. We introduce a method to estimate the test score distributions analytically where uncertainties in magnitude and hypocentral parameters are involved. The analytical formulas used to estimate expected v… Show more

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Cited by 4 publications
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