Convergence of climate-driven hurricanes and COVID-19: The impact of 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota on Nicaragua

Shultz, James M.; Berg, Ryan C.; Kossin, James P.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Maggioni, Aldo P.; Escobar, Victoria Ayala; Castillo, Melissa; Espinel, Zelde; Galea, Sandro

doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100019

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The Honduran Government estimated that 53,000 hectares of crops were devastated by Hurricane Eta, and more than 2.8 million people were affected. Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic and pre-existing humanitarian crises, these extreme compound events left incredible loss and suffering (Shultz et al 2021 ), bringing our response to these events into focus.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

et al. 2022

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Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, the finer grids of Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance of High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models is evaluated using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) over the 1981–2014 period and future changes (2021–2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5–8.5, over ten regions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution in estimating extreme climate variability on a regional scale is first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, and merging products. We used three different groups based on the resolution of the model’s grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg ≤ 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° ≤ sg ≤ 0.7°), and (iii) high (0.23° ≥ sg ≤ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support the posit that increasing horizontal resolution improves model performance. The ECMWF-IFS family of models appears to be a plausible choice to represent climate extremes, followed by the ensemble mean of HighResMIP in their intermediate resolution. For future climate, the projections indicate a consensus of temperature and precipitation climate extremes increase across most of the ten regions. Despite the uncertainties presented in this study, climate models have been and will continue to be an important tool for assessing risk in the face of extreme events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

et al. 2022

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“…In the early 2000s, an estimated 10% of young people aged 18 and under lived or worked in the streets (Population Reference Bureau, 2002). Although the Nicaraguan economy improved over the 2010s, the 2018 sociopolitical crisis, two devastating hurricanes in late 2020, and the COVID-19 pandemic all dealt a significant economic blow (Pearson et al, 2020; Shultz et al, 2021). Considering that poverty is a major driver of youth homelessness, this carries significant implications for the numbers of young people forced to live on the streets.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

By youth for youth: Empowering youth experiencing homelessness in Managua, Nicaragua.

Hamel¹,

Lichtenstein²,

Daley³

et al. 2023

American Journal of Orthopsychiatry

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There is a dearth of effective, evidence-based programming to support youth experiencing homelessness, particularly in low-and middle-income countries where the majority of these young people live. Programs focused on youth engagement and leadership appear to be promising means to effectively engage and promote positive outcomes in this population. By Youth for Youth (BYFY) is a peer-led youth leadership framework developed to promote youth engagement, empowerment, and skill development. To date, BYFY has been successfully implemented with promising process and outcome indicators for youth experiencing homelessness, both in Toronto and with Indigenous youth in Thunder Bay. In this article, we present the application of BYFY with 30 street-involved youth in Managua, Nicaragua. We highlight the key implementation factors leading to BYFY's success in Nicaragua as perceived by facilitators from the implementing organization, Covenant House International, and youth leaders. Using a General Inductive analysis of interview data, field notes, and artistic output generated by the project (rap video, graffiti art, street theater), we identify the processes that appeared to underlie positive outcomes observed in participants, including creating a sense of safety and providing opportunities to challenge negative self-perceptions. This article provides evidence for a scaleable model for youth engagement and empowerment that (a) is practical to implement in low-resource settings and (b) is effective at engaging street-involved youth across diverse cultures and contexts. We summarize practical implications and actionable measures that can be taken by stakeholders to capitalize on these findings. Public Policy Relevance StatementLimited programming options are available to meet the wide-ranging needs of youth experiencing homelessness, particularly in low-and middle-income countries with the majority of this population lives. The present study describes the implementation of a novel, youth-led program in Nicaragua with a group of youth experiencing homelessness in this context, with suggestions for successful implementation and adaptation of this framework in other diverse settings with this population.

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“…In November 2020, Hurricanes Eta and Iota combined to cause some of Central America's worst losses from landslides in the last several decades (Shultz et al, 2021;Walton et al, 2021). Results from the LHASA-NRT (Figure 9D) and Forecast (Figures 9A-C) for parts of Guatemala affected by landslides during Hurricanes Eta and Iota are shown in Figure 9.…”

Section: Hurricane Eta Guatemala 5 November 2020mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

et al. 2022

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Landslides triggered by extreme rainfall can be devastating, resulting in loss of life, property, and infrastructure. Landslide forecasting systems provide an opportunity to build awareness of potential hazards and ultimately take preemptive measures. There is currently a dearth of forecasting systems that provide regional or global coverage, but these systems can offer important situational awareness in data-sparse, ungauged, or large-scale catchments. A near global, primarily satellite-based system called the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) provides near real-time estimates of potential landslide hazard and exposure around the world. In this work, a precipitation forecast module is introduced into LHASA to complement the existing LHASA framework and provide an estimate of landslide hazard up to 3 days in advance at 1 km resolution. The model-based Goddard Earth Observing System-Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) precipitation forecast product is used as the forcing input for the model in place of the satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission product. Soil moisture and snow depth from the GEOS-FP assimilated product are also incorporated. The study period January 2020–January 2021 is used to test the model performance against the LHASA near real-time estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Validation of the model is carried out using a collection of rainfall-triggered landslide inventories from around the world as case studies to demonstrate the potential utility and limitations of this system. The rescaling of the GEOS-FP precipitation product is a critical step in incorporating the forecasted precipitation data within LHASA-Forecast (LHASA-F). Combining different streams of forecasted data within the LHASA-F framework shows promise, particularly for larger events at the 1- and 2-days lead time for events. Results indicate that for the case studies evaluated, the LHASA-F is generally able to resolve major landslide events triggered by extreme rainfall, such as from tropical cyclones. The analysis shows that landslide forecast outputs may be represented differently depending on the user’s needs. This framework serves as a first milestone in providing a global predictive view of landslide hazard.

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Convergence of climate-driven hurricanes and COVID-19: The impact of 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota on Nicaragua

Cited by 14 publications

References 20 publications

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

By youth for youth: Empowering youth experiencing homelessness in Managua, Nicaragua.

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

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