Convergence or Divergence? Life Expectancy Patterns in Post-communist Countries, 1959–2010

Abstract

In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.

Production Losses Associated with Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in the European Union

“…Moreover, a clear socio-economic pattern emerges from the present estimates; the post-communist countries that joined the EU in the 21st century experienced a much greater mortality burden and all of them had an enormously high share of male deaths. This pattern was observed in all the CEE states, the three Baltic republics as well as in Croatia and Slovenia and was previously described in epidemiological, demographic and social literature [48,49,50].…”

Increasing global heterogeneity in the life expectancy of older populations

“…In the “high mortality” convergence club are African countries, former Soviet Union countries, and countries that have in recent decades been subjected to immense political turmoil or war. In fact, the collapse of the Soviet Union has had adverse impact in health and life expectancy in Eastern Europe [15,16,19], and these results are coherent with previous findings. In older age cohorts, particularly former Soviet Union countries diverge from the other countries and are found to converge in another club.…”

“…The life expectancy gains among older adults are also heterogeneous and the trajectories of each club are markedly different. These findings are consistent with emerging evidence on inequalities in quality of life between different regions of the world [13,15,16,18,19]. In fact, we observe decreasing variance at younger ages but increasing variance at older ages as postulated by the theory of epidemiological transition, particularly the shifting mortality burden from infants and young children to older adults.…”

Caste, religion and regional differentials in life expectancy at birth in India: cross-sectional estimates from recent National Family Health Survey

“…1 Globally, life expectancy at birth is converging among and within countries. [2][3][4] Countries are also converging in infant mortality rate, under-five mortality rate and utilisation of basic health services. [5][6][7] Despite higher life expectancy at birth of females than male, findings from a large number of studies in developing countries suggest that females are disadvantaged in health and healthcare utilisation.…”