Converging Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Technologies: Accelerated Growth Effects in Technological Evolution

Abstract

One of the fundamental problems in the field of technological studies is to clarify the drivers and dynamics of technological evolution for sustaining industrial and economic change. This study confronts the problem by analyzing the converging technologies to explain effects on the evolutionary dynamics over time. This paper focuses on technological interaction between artificial intelligence and quantum technologies using a technometric model of technological evolution based on scientific and technological information (publications and patents). Findings show that quantum technology has a growth rate of 1.07, artificial intelligence technology has a rate of growth of 1.37, whereas the technological interaction of converging quantum and artificial intelligence technologies has an accelerated rate of growth of 1.58, higher than trends of these technologies taken individually. These findings suggest that technological interaction is one of the fundamental determinants in the rapid evolution of path-breaking technologies and disruptive innovations. The deductive implications of results about the effects of converging technologies are: (a) accelerated evolutionary growth; (b) a disproportionate (allometric) growth of patents driven by publications supporting a fast technological evolution. Our results support policy and managerial implications for the decision making of policymakers, technology analysts, and R&D managers that can direct R&D investments towards fruitful inter-relationships between radical technologies to foster scientific and technological change with positive societal and economic impcats.

The General Theory of Scientific Variability for Technological Evolution

“…Other studies focus on the synthesis of concepts and methods in preexisting disciplines, such as in bioinformatics, quantum computing, plasma physics, etc. [21,35]. The approaches in these researches point to the self-organizing development of science systems [36,37].…”

“….involves a process of equilibrium governed by the internal dynamics of the object system (p. 69)". A main problem in social studies of science and technology is how the dynamics of science,-encompassing a complex system of scientific topics, methods, and research fields,-supports the technological evolution [7,[18][19][20][21]. This study confronts the problem here by developing a general theory of scientific variability, which endeavors to explain the effects of variability within research fields on the dynamics of the scientific and technological evolution.…”