Converting conventional ecological datasets in dynamic and dynamic spatially explicit simulations: Current advances and future applications of the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)

Santos, Mário; Bastos, Rita; Cabral, João Alexandre

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.02.028

Cited by 20 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Ecological modelling provides useful tools to study complex systems by predicting the outcome of alternative scenarios, and might help guiding the most correct management options from projected future outcomes (e.g. Bastos et al, 2012Bastos et al, , 2015Fernandes et al, 2013;Santos et al, 2013). Actually dynamic models can be used to support the mechanistic understanding of complex multifactorial ecological processes as they simultaneously integrate the structure and the composition of systems for a specific period (Jørgensen, 1994(Jørgensen, , 2001.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term sustainability of cork oak agro-forests in the Iberian Peninsula: A model-based approach aimed at supporting the best management options for the montado conservation

Arosa

Bastos

Cabral

et al. 2017

Ecological Modelling

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a b s t r a c tThe future of the montado, a human shaped agro-forestry ecosystem of South Western Europe, is questioned due to the observed lack of cork oak health and low natural regeneration. We developed a System Dynamics Modelling approach to predict the long-term sustainability of this agro-forest, by recreating cork-oak population dynamics, management practices and the main environmental and biological constrains associated with this ecosystem. Our results indicate that the leading limitations to cork oak regeneration in montado ecosystems result from the intensity and interaction of land management practices, namely livestock and the use of heavy machinery. The main conclusions indicate that limiting the quantity of livestock up to 0.40 LU.ha −1 , and considering soil ploughing with a minimum periodicity of 5 years, are crucial to maintaining sustainable cork oak populations. This study represents a first step to support strategic options for cork oak montado management by providing projections of long-term population trends under realistic social-ecological change scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term sustainability of cork oak agro-forests in the Iberian Peninsula: A model-based approach aimed at supporting the best management options for the montado conservation

Arosa

Bastos

Cabral

et al. 2017

Ecological Modelling

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“…The methodology introduced here offers unique features that complement the outcomes of other spatio-temporal approaches such as Cellular automata, Species Distribution Models (SDM), Stochastic-dynamic-Methodology (StDM), ABM among others when studying the impacts of landscape changes on biodiversity (Santos et al, 2015). In fact StDM, SDM, ABM and Cellular automata have all proved successful in a number of works associated with predicting the response of diversity to LULC dynamics but none represents a "best" approach or provides a universal procedure (Santos et al, 2013;Santos et al, 2015). In holistic approaches, such as SDM, many relevant details are not considered, such as individual variability, adaptation, local idiosyncrasies, and highly dynamic ecological phenomena.…”

Section: Methodology Suitability For Supporting Nbsapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spatiotemporal modelling is an important tool for integrating ecological knowledge in effective landscape management (e.g. Santos et al, 2013), such as in the assessment of socio-ecological changes triggered by disturbances (Parrot and Meyer, 2012). Even simple models can improve our understanding of the mechanisms that disrupt ecological systems and support the identification of socio-ecological thresholds, the crossing of which makes recovery highly improbable (Parrot andMeyer, 2012, Suding andHobbs, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking landscape futures with biodiversity conservation strategies in northwest Iberia — A simulation study combining surrogates with a spatio-temporal modelling approach

Santos

Ferreira

Bastos

et al. 2016

Ecological Informatics

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The most prominent factors inducing landscape change in the rural regions of south west Europe are depopulation and the associated socio-ecological modifications. The aim of this work was to assess the future implications of these processes on land use/land cover and biodiversity in northwest Iberia. To achieve our goal, we developed a virtual spatially explicit dynamic model to simulate regional socio-ecological dynamics. For the period between 1960 and 2040, we tested four different environmental scenarios ranging from small decreases in conifer forest and a stabilization of agricultural areas and shrublands to more radical shifts, substantial decreases in agricultural areas and massive expansion of eucalyptus stands. The model considers also fire, whose role increased significantly in the scenarios of expanded forests. Bird assemblages, which we used as a surrogate for biodiversity, showed complex patterns although with overall decreases in richness and abundance. Species with narrow niche and from Mediterranean open habitats were particularly sensitive to the ongoing changes simulated. Our results suggest that landscape management actions and planning assessments designed for conserving biodiversity should focus on the maintenance of the traditional agricultural mosaic combined with a regulatory legislation limiting the expansion of fast growing tree forests (e.g. Eucalyptus stands). This strategy can contribute to maintaining a diversity of land use/land cover in a heterogeneous landscape and the prevention of the occurrence of large wildfires, fundamental for the implementation of national biodiversity strategies and action plans.

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“…Furthermore, heavy metals bioaccumulate through food chains causing irreversible negative impact for all life forms even at low levels in the environment (Pejman et al, 2015). Computational modelling tools have gained relevance in recent years with specific reference to ecological applications in agriculture (Altaweel & Watanabe, 2012), forestry (Bastos et al, 2012), fisheries (Johnson et al, 2013), meteorology (Krajewski et al, 2000) and hydrology (Michot et al, 2011), amongst several others (Svenning et al, 2011;Crookes et al, 2013;Gonzalez et al, 2013;Santos et al, 2013;Yue et al, 2013).…”

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confidence: 99%

Ecological modelling of a wetland for phytoremediating Cu, Zn and Mn in a gold–copper mine site using Typha domingensis (Poales: Typhaceae) near Orange, NSW, Australia

Subrahmanyam

Adams

Raman

et al. 2017

European Journal of Ecology

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An artificial wetland was computationally modelled using STELLA®, a graphical programming tool for an Au-Cu mine site in Central-west NSW, the aim of which was to offer a predictive analysis of a proposed wetland for Cu, Zn and Mn removal using Typha domingensis as the agent. The model considers the important factors that impact phytoremediation of Cu, Zn and Mn. Simulations were performed to optimise the area of the wetland; concentration of Cu, Zn and Mn released from mine (AMD); and flow rates of water for maximum absorption of the metals. A scenario analysis indicates that at AMD = 0.75mg/L for Cu, Zn and Mn, 12.5, 8.6, and 357.9 kg of Cu, Zn and Mn, respectively, will be assimilated by the wetland in 35 years, which would be equivalent to 61 mg of Cu/kg, 70 mg of Zn/kg and 2,886 mg of Mn/kg of T. domingensis, respectively. However, should Cu, Zn and Mn in AMD increase to 3 mg/L, then 18.6 kg of Cu and 11.8 kg of Zn, respectively, will be assimilated in 35 years, whereas no substantial increase in absorption for Mn would occur. This indicates that 91 mg of Cu, 96 mg of Zn and 2917 mg of Mn will be assimilated for every kg of T. domingensis in the wetland. The best option for Cu storage would be to construct a wetland of 50,000 m 2 area (AMD = 0.367 mg/L of Cu), which would capture 14.1 kg of Cu in 43 years, eventually releasing only 3.9 kg of Cu downstream. Simulations performed for a WA of 30,000 m 2 indicate that for AMD = 0.367 mg/L of Zn, the wetland captures 6.2 kg, releasing only 3.5 kg downstream after 43 years; the concentration of Zn in the leachate would be 10.2 kg, making this the most efficient wetland amongst the options considered for phytoremediating Zn. This work will help mine managers and environmental researchers in developing an effective environmental management plan by focusing on phytoremediation, with a view at extracting Cu, Zn and Mn from the contaminated sites. INTRODUCTIONABSTRACT ecological modelling, heavy-metal removal, restoration ecology, phytoremediation, sustainable development, Typha domingensis KEYWORDS

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Converting conventional ecological datasets in dynamic and dynamic spatially explicit simulations: Current advances and future applications of the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM)

Cited by 20 publications

References 48 publications

Long-term sustainability of cork oak agro-forests in the Iberian Peninsula: A model-based approach aimed at supporting the best management options for the montado conservation

Long-term sustainability of cork oak agro-forests in the Iberian Peninsula: A model-based approach aimed at supporting the best management options for the montado conservation

Linking landscape futures with biodiversity conservation strategies in northwest Iberia — A simulation study combining surrogates with a spatio-temporal modelling approach

Ecological modelling of a wetland for phytoremediating Cu, Zn and Mn in a gold–copper mine site using Typha domingensis (Poales: Typhaceae) near Orange, NSW, Australia

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