JOURNAL OF CROSS-CULTURAL PSYCHOLOGY Van de Vliert et al. / TEMPERATURE, MASCULINITY, AND VIOLENCECross-national data sets were used to examine the association between ambient temperature and internal political violence in 136 countries between 1948 and 1977. Political riots and armed attacks occur more frequently in warm countries than in both cold and hot countries, after controlling for effects of population size and density and levels of socioeconomic development and democracy. National differences on the cultural masculinity dimension, however, do account for this curvilinear temperature-violence association, in a subsample of 53 countries, suggesting that culture mediates the association. An explanation for this mediation in terms of Paternal Investment Theory is proposed.
TEMPERATURE, CULTURAL MASCULINITY
SERGE DAAN
University of GroningenViolence against and by the government is a major problem for many nations but rarely if ever occurs in others. Taylor and Jodice (1983) reported numbers of deaths from domestic political violence in many countries between 1948 and 1977. They cited large numbers in countries that have been plagued by civil or secession wars: about 2 million in Nigeria, 1.6 million in Vietnam, 600,000 in Indonesia, 300,000 in Pakistan, and 80,000 in Burundi. In contrast, no victims were reported from 13 other countries, including Ice- We would like to thank Aukje Nauta and two anonymous JCCP reviewers for their helpful contributions. Direct correspondence to Evert Van de Vliert, Department of Social and Organizational Psychology, University of Groningen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, 9712 TS Groningen, The Netherlands; telefax: 31-503-636-304; e-mail: E. Van land, Mongolia, Upper Volta, and Australia. One can debate the accuracy of these figures, as well as the extent to which conflicts in states still in a process of formation are domestic. But there no doubt are enduring differences between countries in regard to massive violence.The literature provides no convincing explanation for the cross-national differences in the incidence of domestic political violence. This article focuses on ambient temperature as a potential determinant of politically instigated violence. In both laboratory experiments and field studies within nations, a general temperature-aggression link is well-documented (e.g., Anderson, 1987;Anderson & Anderson, 1996;Geen, 1990; Goldstein, 1994;Rotton, 1986), although there is an ongoing debate about whether the relation is rectilinear (Anderson, 1989;Anderson & DeNeve, 1992;Anderson, Deuser, & DeNeve, 1995) or curvilinear in the shape of an inverted U (Baron & Bell, 1976;Bell, 1992). However, because this literature primarily applies to affect-based, spontaneous aggression at the individual level (Anderson, 1989;Anderson & DeNeve, 1992), it does not provide potential explanations for mass violence that is primarily government-related, society-based, and planned.The evidence for a specific association between ambient temperature and organized political violence rests solely on...