Coping with cereal production risks due to the vagaries of weather, labour shortages and input markets through management in southern Mali

Huet, E.K.; Adam, Myriam; Traoré, Bouba Sidi; Descheemaeker, Katrien

doi:10.1016/j.eja.2022.126587

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Risk matrices are widely used to communicate risks and support decision‐making around risk mitigation. For example, risk matrices have recently been used to assist with the development of therapeutic guidelines that mitigate health risks (Lemmens et al., 2022), communicate the threat of plastic pollution to aquatic wildlife across different species (Roman et al., 2022), visualize various weather‐ and non‐weather‐related risks to cereals production (Huet et al., 2022), and communicate risks of various natural hazards such as rock bursts (Kadkhodaei & Ghasemi, 2022), floods, and droughts (Cotti et al., 2022). Risk matrices are also used to support international and national risk management practices, e.g., those of the U.K.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision‐making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies

et al. 2023

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Risk matrices communicate the likelihood and potential impact of risks and are often used to inform decision-making around risk mitigations. The merits and demerits of risk matrices in general have been discussed extensively, yet little attention has been paid to the potential influence of color in risk matrices on their users. We draw from fuzzytrace theory and hypothesize that when color is present, individuals are likely to place greater value on reducing risks that cross color boundaries (i.e., the boundary-crossing effect), leading to sub-optimal decision making. In two randomized controlled studies, employing forced-choice and willingness-to-pay measures to investigate the boundarycrossing effect in two different color formats for risk matrices, we find preliminary evidence to support our hypotheses that color can influence decision making. The evidence also suggests that the boundary-crossing effect is only present in, or is stronger for, higher numeracy individuals. We therefore recommend that designers should consider avoiding color in risk matrices, particularly in situations where these are likely to be used by highly numerate individuals, if the communication goal is to inform in an unbiased way.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision‐making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies

et al. 2023

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“…On average it rains 863 mm per year, although totals ranged between 500-1250 mm/year in the period 1965-2019 (Traore et al, 2013;Huet et al, 2022). Farmers were concerned about hazardous rainfall events such as low rainfall, a late onset of rainfall or dry spells (Huet et al, 2020).…”

Section: Farmers' Practice In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The average fertiliser rate currently used by farmers was compared with an increased rate. For cereals, the increased rate was the one with the highest grain yield while maintaining a positive return on investment as defined by Huet et al (2022). Each combination of management characteristics comprised an asset in the MPT (Table 4.3).…”

Section: Farmers' Practice In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The cereal yields (maize, sorghum, millet) and variability were obtained from model simulation output from the DSSAT-CERES crop model for the years 1965-2019. Details of the simulation setup, including farming practice, and outputs were described in Huet et al (2022). The cotton yields were observed data from a long-term trial from 1965 to 1993 in N'Tarla described in detail in (Traore et al, 2013).…”

Section: Farmers' Practice In the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The same dataset was used in a risk analysis at field level (Huet et al, 2022), where these shortduration varieties of maize and sorghum appeared as appropriate options in years with a late onset.…”

Section: Return and Stability Affected By Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Not wrapped up in cotton wool : how risk influences farming in southern Mali

Huet

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West African farmers are exposed to a variety of risks, including climate variability. Moreover, trends of population growth, declining natural resources and climate change increase the probability of hazards and extreme events. In this environments, farmers are often struggling to be food selfsufficient or escape poverty. We focused on the area of Koutiala, southern Mali, as an illustrative region for the challenging farming conditions in West Africa.The aim of this thesis was to understand farmers' strategies to cope within a variable and hazardous environment. A parallel objective was to analyse which sustainable intensification options could increase productivity and/or reduce risks within the socio-economic and biophysical context. Risk was defined as the combination of the probability of a hazard taking place and the impact this induces. To analyse risk perception and suitability of on-farm options several data sources were combined: responses from individual surveys and focus group discussions, outputs from crop model simulations, long-term weather data and evaluations of trials and try-out fields embedded within a long-term participatory process.Risks related to health of family members were perceived as the highest, followed by risks related to health of livestock. Farmers managed those risks by maintaining flexibility and diversity in the farm management which allowed them to limit the impact and react quickly when hazards happened.Farmers overcame losses by relying on social interactions and using productive assets, e.g. selling cattle. Hence, they lost capital. Within households, differences in risk perception were related to decision-power, not to gender. Between farms, risk perception was related to resource endowment to a limited extent. The frequency and impact on yield of some hazards were quantified using crop simulation data. Weather hazards occurred at least every five years and reduced cereal yields. The impact of hazards on cereal yields (maize, sorghum, millet) interacted with the cereal management (early sowing, increasing N fertilisation and/or introducing a short duration variety). Increasing maize yields through management did not affect relative yield losses in case of hazards. Adapted millet management caused a trade-off between yield and hazard impact. Adapted sorghum management increased yield and mitigated hazard impacts simultaneously. Further, I demonstrated that on-farm diversification of crop land allocation had the potential to increase stability. The combination of cotton and a cereal had a relatively strong stabilisation benefit, as cotton and the cereals responded differently to weather. While the majority of diversification strategies enabled farmers to meet the food sufficiency requirements, farmers had to target combinations with a high mean return and large variability in order to surpass the poverty line. Within this environment, an iterative and participatory co-learning cycle facilitated a learning environment for researchers and farmers. This process yielded a diver...

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Mechanisms and modelling approaches for excessive rainfall stress on cereals: Waterlogging, submergence, lodging, pests and diseases

Kim,

Webber,

Adiku

et al. 2024

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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Coping with cereal production risks due to the vagaries of weather, labour shortages and input markets through management in southern Mali

Cited by 7 publications

References 58 publications

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision‐making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision‐making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies

Not wrapped up in cotton wool : how risk influences farming in southern Mali

Mechanisms and modelling approaches for excessive rainfall stress on cereals: Waterlogging, submergence, lodging, pests and diseases

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