Coping with the curse of freshwater variability

Identifying changes in runoff and quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities are of great significance for water resources planning and management in a river basin. In this study, an inflow series of the Three Gorges Reservoir observed from 1951 to 2016 is used to identify the trend and abrupt change point by using statistical methods. Based on the meteorological data, soil type data, and land use data during the same period, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established to quantitatively attribute changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow to climate change and human activities separately and discuss the differences between the two-stage method, which divides the whole study period into two stages to analyze the reasons for runoff evolution, and multi-stage method, which divides the whole study period into more stages to consider the temporal and spatial variation of land use/cover (LULC). The results show: (1) During the study period, a significant decrease is detected in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow and the decrease rate is 7.7 km 3 per ten years, annual total precipitation decreases by −13.5 mm per ten years, and annual average temperature increases by 0.1 • C per ten years. (2) Contribution of climate change and human activities is around 7:3. Climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Three Gorges Reservoir inflow. (3) Results of stages in multi-stage method are different from the result of two-stage method. Accumulative results of multi-stage method and result of two-stage method are consistent. There are some changes in results of every stage, which are different from the accumulative results.

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“…These human activities have great and direct impacts on runoff [34]. Reservoir impoundment is used as an example.…”

Section: Comparison Between Two-and Multi-stage Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow

Zhang

Zhong

Chen

et al. 2017

Water

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“…A growing awareness of the capacity for adverse shocks to proliferate through linked systems, or 'systemic risks' (De Bandt & Hartmann 2000), has coincided with a focus on resource security and risk-based principles for decision-making under uncertainty (Hall et al 2014;Paté-Cornell 2012). The global challenge is to confront these systemic threats through resilient, sustainable, risk-based decision-making that responds to uncertainties and creates options to sustainably feed the world (WEF 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responding to Global Challenges in Food, Energy, Environment and Water: Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making

Grafton

McLindin

Hussey

et al. 2016

Asia & Pacific Policy Stud

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We analyse the threats of global environmental change, as they relate to food security. First, we review three discourses: (i) 'sustainable intensification', or the increase of food supplies without compromising food producing inputs, such as soils and water; (ii) the 'nexus' that seeks to understand links across food, energy, environment and water systems; and (iii) 'resilience thinking' that focuses on how to ensure the critical capacities of food, energy and water systems are maintained in the presence of uncertainties and threats. Second, we build on these discourses to present the causal, risks and options assessment for decision-making process to improve decisionmaking in the presence of risks. The process provides a structured, but flexible, approach that moves from problem diagnosis to better risk-based decision-making and outcomes by responding to causal risks within and across food, energy, environment and water systems.

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“…For climate exposure indicators we relied heavily on FEWSNET historical climate data [19] (4 of 6 indictors), and for sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators we relied extensively on spatially interpolated Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data (3 of 12 indicators). Each data layer was justified based on its conceptual proximity to the three vulnerability components [15], and choices were consistent with the variables that have been found to be associated with harm from climate variability and change, including education levels [20], climate variability [21], and marginal (semi-arid and arid) environments and geographically remote areas in poor developing regions [12,22]. The guiding approach was to identify a limited number of high-quality spatial data sets that best represent the component of interest while avoiding the temptation to add low-quality data (data of high uncertainty or coarse spatial resolution), thereby "contaminating" the results.…”

Section: Mali Vulnerability Mappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

Sherbinin

Chai-Onn

Jaiteh

et al. 2015

IJGI

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Vulnerability mapping reveals areas that are likely to be at greater risk of climate-related disasters in the future. Through integration of climate, biophysical, and socioeconomic data in an overall vulnerability framework, so-called "hotspots" of vulnerability can be identified. These maps can be used as an aid to targeting adaptation and disaster risk management interventions. This paper reviews vulnerability mapping efforts in West Africa conducted under the USAID-funded African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) project. The focus is on the integration of remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. Data inputs included a range of sensor data (e.g., MODIS NDVI, Landsat, SRTM elevation, DMSP-OLS night-time lights) as well as high-resolution poverty, conflict, and infrastructure data. Two basic methods were used, one in which each layer was transformed into standardized indicators in an additive approach, and another in which remote sensing data were used to contextualize the results of composite indicators. We assess the benefits and challenges of data integration, and the lessons learned from these mapping exercises.

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Coping with the curse of freshwater variability

Abstract: Institutions, infrastructure, and information for adaptation

Cited by 169 publications

References 9 publications

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Three Gorges Reservoir Inflow

Responding to Global Challenges in Food, Energy, Environment and Water: Risks and Options Assessment for Decision‐Making

Data Integration for Climate Vulnerability Mapping in West Africa

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