Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals

Guzmán, Juan Ignacio; Silva, Enrique

doi:10.1007/s13563-017-0130-y

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…al_cw_D1 and zn_cw_D1 indicate the first differenced variables. Guzmán and Silva (2018) found similar result for the copper market using error variance decomposition. They reported that more than 19% of variance was associated with financial speculation, such as the long positions in the futures market during the period over August 2003and September 2008.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

“…Notice that their sample period was from August 2007 to April 2016, which is considered to be a somewhat strengthening period of financialization. Guzmán and Silva (2018) reported that the financialization of commodities appears to have a direct impact on the spot copper price, considering market liquidity as a non-fundamental variable. Koitsiwe and Adachi (2018) argued that the recent rise and fall in commodity prices were not determined by only the classical fundamental factors of supply and demand.…”

Section: Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They showed that financial speculation had accentuated copper price moves during the last decade. Guzmán and Silva (2018) argued that, following the recent price boom, some dissent had arisen around the role played by non-fundamentals such as liquidity or money supply in major commodity markets. They found that some indications of financialization in the copper price explained the price dynamics using the VAR model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Canceled Warrants in the LME Market

Park

2019

IJFS

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This article visits the question of whether canceled warrants (CWs) have a positive effect on LME metal prices. To examine this question carefully, a regression model is applied. This paper finds a statistically significant positive link between CWs and LME metal prices, including aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel. However, other metals such as copper and lead are not statistically significant. The second objective of the study is to identify the dynamic response of metal price returns for aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel to an innovation in the CWs using VAR. It is found that the positive impact of the CWs on metal returns is transitory.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

Section: Regression Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Canceled Warrants in the LME Market

Park

2019

IJFS

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“…Hay que considerar que, pese a que hay 5 meses de diferencia en la estimación, en este periodo hubo bastantes cambios que provocaron en grandes modificaciones para las proyecciones, al menos de corto plazo. El IPI se construyó considerando los crecimientos proyectados para el PIB de los países en cuestión por el FMI (International Monetary Fund 2019a, 2019b, 2019c, 2019d más análisis propio. Hay que considerar que las tensiones comerciales han provocado débiles índices en cuanto a producción industrial, por lo que las proyecciones realizadas por el FMI durante el primer trimestre del año 2019 quedan muy por sobre el crecimiento que en la práctica ha sucedió los últimos meses del año, por este motivo las proyecciones de crecimiento debieron ser analizadas más a profundidad y actualizadas.…”

Section: Proyección Con Modelo Econométricounclassified

Proyección de precio de largo plazo del cobre: un enfoque metodológico crítico

Roa¹

2021

J. min. eng. res.

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El precio de los commodities ha experimentado cambios relevantes de tendencia en la última década, inducidos básicamente por los ciclos económicos y la situación particular de países que tienen un rol central, desde la perspectiva de oferta como de demanda de metales industriales. Dado esto ha cobrado mayor importancia la revisión de metodologías para proyectar el precio del cobre. El objetivo del presente estudio es comparar las proyecciones de las dos metodologías más utilizadas en la industria, realizadas en dos momentos distintos del tiempo, separadas por sólo cinco meses. De este modo lograr entender cada metodología, analizar su sensibilidad y de qué variables dependen la generación de incertidumbre al interior de cada una. Se encuentra mayor sensibilidad en la metodología Precio- Incentivo, con un cambio en la proyección de 13%, mientras tanto, el modelo econométrico presenta una variación en su resultado de 1.3%.

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“…Like most commodities traded internationally copper prices are settled in US dollar, therefore fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate index play a critical role in driving copper prices (Valencia, 2005 andGuzman andSilva, 2017). When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities tend to drop.…”

Section: Determinants Of Copper Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Financial Speculation in Copper Prices

Koitsiwe

Adachi

2018

AEF

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The recently ended rise in commodity price boom and the ensuing spectacular price falls that followed, have inspired an interest among the researchers on the role played by other factors besides the physical supply and demand. This paper examines the role played by financial speculation in copper price boom during the last decade. Using least squares with breakpoints, the results indicate that from January 1993 to December 2016 LME real copper spot prices have been characterized by structural changes and its determinants significantly varies in distinct periods. The results reveal that, financial speculation accentuated copper price moves during the last decade. The results support the conclusion that, fundamentals alone cannot fully explain price moves.

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Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals

Cited by 21 publications

References 52 publications

The Role of Canceled Warrants in the LME Market

The Role of Canceled Warrants in the LME Market

Proyección de precio de largo plazo del cobre: un enfoque metodológico crítico

The Role of Financial Speculation in Copper Prices

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