Copper trade risk in China: A multidimensional dynamic evaluation

Abstract

Copper is the primary material of the national manufacturing industry, widely used to construct the national economy. As one of the critical minerals, trade security of copper resources is related to the stable development of the domestic industry. The dynamic evaluation of China's copper trade and identification of the principal risk points is helpful to promote the sustainable development of resources. In this paper, the environmental impact of trade is included in the research category, and the paper conducts a dynamic assessment of China's copper trade risks from 2001 to 2020 of multiple dimensions through the improved DEA‐like model, identifies the main risk points in different periods, and predicts future trade risks. The results show that China's copper resource trade risk has continued to rise since 2001, and its characteristics have gradually changed. The main risk points of trade have experienced the market equilibrium stage, reserve resources stage, and import dependency stage. A high degree of external dependence and environmental pollution intensification has become the key factors influencing the trade risk at the present stage. Copper resources risk will rise slowly in the future and reach a high‐risk state. Trade risks will decline slightly after 2025, but it is still in a dangerous condition. Relevant policies need to be issued to alleviate the trade risk. Combined with the evaluation results, this paper puts forward multidimensional risk management suggestions to ensure the security of copper resources, and improve the flexibility of the resource industry chain. The article provides direction for resource security and sustainable development in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.