Linear and nonlinear perturbative analyses of low-frequency instabilities are presented for ST40 spherical torus high field plasmas, with simultaneous neutral beam heating due to two tangential sources at 25keV and 55keV. Initial plasma profiles on which the TRANSP and NUBEAM codes were based were obtained using an integrated analysis of several diagnostics including line-of-sight integrated and volume average measurements, as well as limited profile information from a charge-exchange-recombination spectrometer. MHD analysis using the NOVA/NOVA-K codes suggests that the modes in the experiments are core-localized n=1 eigenmodes with mixed acoustic and electromagnetic Alfvénic polarization. The global transport combined with the perturbative mode analysis indicates that there is greater tendency for bursty chirping response as the level of background micro-turbulence decreases in time and those predictions are shown to be consistent with the experimental data. This finding is interpreted in terms of the suppression of coherent phase-space structures that support chirping when the resonant fast ion dynamics is dominated by frequent stochastic, orbit-decorrelating events.