Correlating tropical climate with survival of an Arctic-breeding, trans-equatorial migrant seabird

Abstract

Extreme climate can negatively affect survival through increased physiological demands or by reducing prey availability. This can have significant population-level consequences for organisms with low reproductive rates, such as seabirds. As an Arctic-breeding trans-equatorial migrant, Sabine’s gull (Xema sabini) is exposed to a profound variety of climate regimes during the year. Therefore, its annual survival may be affected by broad-scale teleconnection patterns that influence regional climate variability. We used Program MARK to estimate apparent survival and resighting probabilities from 2007 to 2013 for adult Sabine’s gulls breeding at a High Arctic colony. We then combined capture–mark–recapture data for the High Arctic colony with those previously published from a Low Arctic colony (1998–2002) to examine influences of climate variability on survival. Mean ± standard error apparent survival estimated for the High Arctic colony was 0.90 ± 0.03, similar to that previously reported for the Low Arctic colony. We found a negative relationship between survival and the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern, an atmospheric mode that is associated with the Pacific jet stream. Our study suggests that although Sabine’s gull survival was generally high and relatively constant over time, adult mortality may increase during years of extreme climate events in regions far beyond their Arctic breeding grounds.

Adult survival of Arctic terns in the Canadian High Arctic

“…Consequently, our results suggesting apparent adult survival of 0.883 places Arctic terns in the Canadian High Arctic at similar survival to terns breeding further south in North America, including other Sterna species (Payo-Payo et al 2018) and a little lower than recent rates of other tern species (Ledwoń et al 2013). Moreover, adult tern survival was in the range of estimates for other Arctic larids breeding in Nunavut: glaucous gulls-0.84-0.86 (Gaston, Descamps et al 2009;Allard et al 2010); Thayer's gulls (Larus thayeri)-0.81 (Allard et al 2010) and Sabine's gulls (Xema sabini)-0.90 (Fife et al 2018).…”

“…Sandvik et al (2005) and Frederiksen et al (2008) showed that change underway in climatic conditions, or extreme weather events, have a deleterious effect on adult survival in other seabirds breeding in the North Atlantic. Long-distance migrants are expected to be even more vulnerable to climate variation (Both et al 2009), and evidence from sympatrically-nesting Sabine's gulls, another trans-equatorial migrant breeding at this site, found that annual survival was lower during anomalous climatic conditions in the wintering grounds or migration sites (Fife et al 2018). Interestingly, Sabine's gulls also deferred nesting in the two years that Arctic terns did; whether this was a response by both species to local climatic conditions (and resulting effects on foraging or nesting) or a response to conditions on the wintering or migration grounds is unknown.…”

Wintering, rather than breeding, oceanic conditions may modulate declining survival in a long-distance migratory seabird

“…As migratory species spend the majority of their annual cycle on migration or overwintering, the habitat conditions experienced during these periods are likely to influence adult and post-fledging juvenile survival. Likewise, conditions on breeding grounds influence reproductive success, with decreases in productivity in years where conditions are poorer (Fife et al, 2018). In addition to these within-season effects, conditions experienced in one season can affect the condition and performance of 4 individuals in later seasons (Harrison et al, 2011).…”