Correlation analysis between Korean spring drought and large-scale teleconnection patterns for drought forecasting

Kim, Jong‐Suk; Seo, Gil-Su; Jang, Ho Won; Lee, Joo-Heon

doi:10.1007/s12205-016-0580-8

Cited by 32 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The drought risk evaluation method suggested herein may be useful for predicting drought and establishing realistic coping strategies for extreme drought in a changing climate. Climate change is regarded as one of the most significant risks facing current and future generations and may have deleterious effects on both civilizations and ecosystems (Ranjan et al, 2006;Pelt and Swart, 2011;Hao et al, 2017;Kang et al, 2017;Kim et al, 2017;Choi et al, 2018). About 9.5 million people experienced severe food shortages due to droughts in eastern Africa from 2010 to 2011; this led to numerous deaths from malnutrition (Hillier and Dempsey, 2012).…”

Section: Funding Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme drought hotspot analysis for adaptation to a changing climate: Assessment of applicability to the five major river basins of the Korean Peninsula

Lee

Park

Kim

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study proposes a quantitative approach for extreme drought hotspot assessment related to climate change, the hotspot drought risk index (HDRI), and evaluates the response of extreme drought to climate change in the five major river basins of the Korean Peninsula. According to an analysis of seasonal and regional drought characteristics on the Korean Peninsula, drought occurs most frequently in spring, and the central and southern areas are generally more vulnerable to drought. Drought risk analysis under various climate change scenarios indicates significant drought risk over the entire Korean Peninsula excepting some parts of the Han and Nakdong river basins from 2011 to 2040. Extreme drought may be particularly severe in the mid‐west area as these basins lack available water resources. Drought risk decreases in the southern Korean Peninsula in the 2011–2040 and 2071–2099 periods, during which the area vulnerable to drought also decreases. However, some parts of central Korea and the western and eastern coastlines remain susceptible to drought. The drought risk evaluation method suggested herein may be useful for predicting drought and establishing realistic coping strategies for extreme drought in a changing climate.

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Section: Funding Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme drought hotspot analysis for adaptation to a changing climate: Assessment of applicability to the five major river basins of the Korean Peninsula

Lee

Park

Kim

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…It is also reported that anomalous spring snow cover in western Siberia is positively correlated with spring precipitation in south China (Wu and Kirtman, 2007). As a large-scale teleconnection pattern, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is negatively correlated with springtime precipitation over Korea and East Sea (Kim et al, 2017b). Seo et al (2013) further documented that the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can cut down precipitation around Korea and Japan by modulating the subtropical high and westerly jet.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…It is also reported that anomalous spring snow cover in western Siberia is positively correlated with spring precipitation in south China (Wu and Kirtman, ). As a large‐scale teleconnection pattern, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is negatively correlated with springtime precipitation over Korea and East Sea (Kim et al, ). Seo et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Springtime extra‐tropical cyclones in Northeast Asia and their impacts on long‐term precipitation trends

Cho

Son

Park

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Springtime extra‐tropical cyclones (ETCs) in Northeast Asia and the associated precipitation anomalies are examined by objectively tracking ETCs from reanalysis data. The cluster analyses reveal that Northeast Asian cyclones are largely grouped into two distinct tracks, that is, north and south tracks, depending on their pathways. The south‐track ETCs typically form over southeast China and travel towards the Japanese Islands, while the north‐track ETCs are first detected around Mongolia and move southeastwards to the Korean Peninsula. Unlike the latter ones, the former ones exhibit a significant negative trend in their occurrence frequency (−1.17 per decade from 1979 to 2014), explaining a negative precipitation trend over the broad regions from southeast China to the Kyushu Islands. It is argued that the reduction of the south‐track ETCs is at least in part caused by the strengthened convection over the tropical western Pacific. The resulting Gill‐type response in the subtropics tends to drive reduced moisture supplies to southern China, likely causing an unfavourable condition for the development of the south‐track ETCs.

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“…Despite their potential predictability, climate indices are seldom used to estimate the likelihood or severity of drought due to low correlation with South Korean data. For example, analyses of the SPI and various climate indices by Kim et al (2017) found correlation co-efficients ranging from −0.2 to 0.2. In our case, various factors (e.g.…”

Section: Bayesian Network and A Likelihood Weighting Algorithmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic long‐term hydrological drought forecast using Bayesian networks and drought propagation

Shin

Kwon

Lee

et al. 2019

Meteorological Applications

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Effective drought mitigation plans that can handle severe drought conditions require reliable drought forecasts. A probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting method was developed using Bayesian networks that incorporate dynamic model predictions and a drought propagation relationship. The resulting model, Bayesian networks based drought forecasting with drought propagation (BNDF_DP), was designed using current and forecast lead time drought conditions of a multi‐model ensemble. Hydrological drought conditions were represented by the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. The ranked probability score (RPS) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were employed to measure forecast proficiency. The BNDF_DP model showed good performance, with an RPS 4–50% higher than a climatological model. ROC analysis indicated that the BNDF_DP offered superior forecasting skills for long‐term drought, with a 2 and 3 month lead time, compared with a model that does not consider drought propagation. The overall results indicated that the BNDF_DP model was a promising tool for probabilistic drought forecasting that can provide water managers and decision‐makers with the flexibility to respond to undesirable drought risks, prepare drought mitigation action plans and regulate policies based on future uncertainties.

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Correlation analysis between Korean spring drought and large-scale teleconnection patterns for drought forecasting

Cited by 32 publications

References 15 publications

Extreme drought hotspot analysis for adaptation to a changing climate: Assessment of applicability to the five major river basins of the Korean Peninsula

Extreme drought hotspot analysis for adaptation to a changing climate: Assessment of applicability to the five major river basins of the Korean Peninsula

Springtime extra‐tropical cyclones in Northeast Asia and their impacts on long‐term precipitation trends

Probabilistic long‐term hydrological drought forecast using Bayesian networks and drought propagation

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