Correlation between the Production of Electricity by Offshore Wind Farms and the Demand for Electricity in Polish Conditions

Abstract

Energy transition forcing a change in the structure of the electricity generation system is a particularly difficult task in countries such as Poland, where the dominant source of energy is fossil fuels. Due to the nature of renewable sources (stochastic and seasonally variable), it is necessary to study their impact on the power system. Much research was conducted on this subject. They consider modelling power systems in terms of dealing with an increasing amount of renewable energy sources, stabilization of electricity generation or environmental aspects. This article examines one of the key sources of future power systems—offshore wind turbines (OWT). The influence of offshore wind sources on the power system in the fields of stability of generation, methods of regulatory strategies, and economics were examined. One of the aspects that are less considered is the correlation of energy production in OWT with energy demand and with generation in other renewable energy sources, especially in the region of the southern Baltic Sea and the distribution of energy demand in countries such as Poland. The key aspect of the research is to fill this gap. The obtained results indicate that the average monthly power generation in OWT is strongly positively correlated with the demand, and the hourly average is positively correlated moderately. Correlation between generation in OWT and photovoltaic sources is very high negative, and between onshore and offshore wind turbines is highly positive. The study indicates that the OWT has a significant potential for the development and replacement of conventional sources, due to the very high capacity and a positive correlation with demand. Moreover, future offshore wind farms can cooperate with photovoltaic sources as these sources complement each other. On the other hand, a significant saturation of the system with offshore and onshore wind sources may pose a threat to the power system due to their positive correlation.

Energy Storage Potential Needed at the National Grid Scale (Poland) in Order to Stabilize Daily Electricity Production from Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power

“…However, there are plans in Poland to increase power capacities, especially in the field of photovoltaics and wind turbines, such as those on offshore installations. The noticeably higher impact of wind turbines on the need to increase energy storage capacity may be intensified by the installation of offshore wind turbines [42,43].…”

The Determinant of Time in the Logistical Process of Wind Farm Planning

“…Due to the need for decarbonization of the energy sector, there is a need to replace coal sources with zero-emission sources. WF and offshore wind farms (OWF) are among the sources with the greatest potential [36]. The maximum potential for Polish OWFs is estimated at 28 GW [37].…”

Scenario-Based Model Predictive Control for Systems with Correlated Uncertainties

“…In the works mentioned section 1.3 and in most of the literature, uncertainties in a microgrids are assumed to be either uncorrelated or each is correlated in time, but no consideration is given to the correlation that may exist between them. There are cases, due to working hours, off-hours, activity in a household, etc., where there is a high correlation between powers [83]- [87], either between the output powers of RES generators, PV-wind, PV-demand, wind-demand, or between various loads on the demand side. Moreover, photovoltaic and wind power generation forecasts, and possibly demand forecast, are strongly influenced by meteorological conditions that can be highly fluctuating, which can also affect the type or distribution of uncertainties.…”

“…Some or all the set of random variables ξ pvg,q , ξ wg,r and ξ l are correlated (e.g. there is a correlation between powers [83]- [85], [87], either between generators in the RES, or between demand and generated power) and make up the random vector γ ∈ R n q +n r +1 , that is…”

“…Therefore, a energy management based on a scenario-based MPC is desirable, given its possibility to include updated statistical information in real-time, to make better decisions consistent with the actual situation of the system. Additionally, there are cases, due to working hours, off-hours, activity in a household, etc., where there is a high correlation between powers [83]- [87], either between the output powers of RES generators, PV-wind, PV-demand, wind-demand, or between various loads on the demand side.…”