Correlation of extreme waves and water levels using a third-generation wave model and a 3D flow model

The performance of the copulas in estimating the joint probability of extreme waves and surges along east coasts of the mainland China

“…In engineering practice, when lacking the analysis of joint probability, the joint event for a certain period is typically estimated by an addition of the single event with specified return period. For example, a 100-year return level joint event is sometimes approximated by the sum of a 100-year Hs (100Hs) and 10-year S (10S), the sum of a 10-year Hs (10Hs) and 100-year S (100S), or the sum of a 50-year Hs (50Hs) and 50-year S (50S) (Li and Song, 2006), or an addition of 100-year Hs and S (Code of Hydrology for Harhour and Waterway, JTS 145-2015, China). To compare the outcome of these combinations and the joint probability results, the Hs and S sampled by the univariate method without considering their dependence are used to calculate the Hs and S with 100-year, 50-year and 10-year return periods at all nine locations.…”

“…The samples could be selected by different ways. For example, in the sampling of extreme wave heights and surges, some researchers sample the extreme wave heights (or surges) and the simultaneous surges (or wave heights) by the block maxima method (Li and Song, 2006). Others consider the "impact" of the events and select the samples according to a defined response function, i.e.…”

“…According to Marcos et al (2019), the return periods of extreme sea levels are underestimated in 30% of the coasts around the world if dependence is neglected. In particular, along the coasts of China, Li and Song (2006) analysed the correlations between the extreme wave heights and extreme water levels in the coastal waters of Hong Kong using the Gumbel-logistic model. The result proved that applying the commonly used empirical method to estimate the total water level (by directly adding the univariate extreme values) may not be sufficiently accurate to derive the coastal design criteria.…”

Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf

“…Extreme water levels have always been a challenge to modellers and sailors. Li and Song (2005) presented a procedure to correlate extreme *Corresponding author. Email: thomaskutty@gmail.com.…”