Corrigendum to “Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change” [Biol. Conserv. 143 (2010) 1612–1622]

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Lewis, Mark A.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.07.001

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…Without the sea ice substrate, prey are largely unavailable to polar bears (Stirling and Derocher , Rode et al ); the result is increased fasting, which leads to declines in body condition and survival (Atkinson and Ramsay , Derocher and Stirling , Cherry et al , Robbins et al , Derocher et al ). These adverse consequences become increasingly dire as the ice‐free period lengthens beyond 4 months (Molnár et al , ; Robbins et al ; Pilfold et al ). By the end of this century, ice‐free conditions in the Arctic are likely to persist for 5 to 11 months out of the year (Amstrup et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resultant increased fasting has significant negative effects on polar bear body condition (Stirling et al , Rode et al ) and the increasing ice‐free period has been linked to declines in survival (Stirling and Derocher ; Stirling et al ; Regehr et al , ; Bromaghin et al ). Longer periods of fasting and increased nutritional stress (Cherry et al ; Molnár et al , ; Rode et al ; Regehr et al ) have also been attributed to incidents of infanticide, cannibalism, and starvation in some polar bear subpopulations (Lunn and Stenhouse , Derocher and Wiig , Amstrup et al , Stirling et al ), although Taylor et al () suggested that cannibalism is not an uncommon phenomenon in polar bear biology. When on shore, some nutritionally stressed bears are highly motivated to obtain food however they can, and appear more willing to risk interacting with humans as a result (e.g., Stirling and Derocher , Derocher et al , Stirling and Parkinson , Towns et al ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

et al. 2017

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Understanding causes of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) attacks on humans is critical to ensuring both human safety and polar bear conservation. Although considerable attention has been focused on understanding black (U. americanus) and grizzly (U. arctos) bear conflicts with humans, there have been few attempts to systematically collect, analyze, and interpret available information on human‐polar bear conflicts across their range. To help fill this knowledge gap, a database was developed (Polar Bear‐Human Information Management System [PBHIMS]) to facilitate the range‐wide collection and analysis of human‐polar bear conflict data. We populated the PBHIMS with data collected throughout the polar bear range, analyzed polar bear attacks on people, and found that reported attacks have been extremely rare. From 1870–2014, we documented 73 attacks by wild polar bears, distributed among the 5 polar bear Range States (Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, and United States), which resulted in 20 human fatalities and 63 human injuries. We found that nutritionally stressed adult male polar bears were the most likely to pose threats to human safety. Attacks by adult females were rare, and most were attributed to defense of cubs. We judged that bears acted as a predator in most attacks, and that nearly all attacks involved ≤2 people. Increased concern for both human and bear safety is warranted in light of predictions of increased numbers of nutritionally stressed bears spending longer amounts of time on land near people because of the loss of their sea ice habitat. Improved conflict investigation is needed to collect accurate and relevant data and communicate accurate bear safety messages and mitigation strategies to the public. With better information, people can take proactive measures in polar bear habitat to ensure their safety and prevent conflicts with polar bears. This work represents an important first step towards improving our understanding of factors influencing human‐polar bear conflicts. Continued collection and analysis of range‐wide data on interactions and conflicts will help increase human safety and ensure the conservation of polar bears for future generations. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

et al. 2017

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“…During these periods they fast and rely on body lipid reserves for energy (Cherry et al, 2009). Climate warming causes earlier break-up of sea-ice and thus prolongs this fasting period in polar bears, resulting in increased mortality rates due to emaciation and starvation (Gagnon and Gough, 2005;Molnar et al, , 2014Stirling and Derocher, 2012). Because many lipid-soluble POPs are not excreted, fasting and especially emaciation will cause large increases of the concentrations of these compounds in blood and target tissues (Polischuk et al, 2002;Christensen et al, 2007;Helgason et al, 2013).…”

Section: Combined Effects On Energetic Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many POPs have health effects that directly affect survival rates, such as their negative effects on the immune system (Vos et al, 2000). Thus, it is likely that fasting-induced increases of these compounds will increase the mortality rates beyond those predicted to be caused by the climate-induced prolonged fasting period alone (Molnar et al, , 2014. It is also likely that fasting-induced increases of burdens of POPs that are reproductive EDCs will add to the predicted negative reproductive effects that lower body condition alone has on reproductive success of polar bears (Regehr et al, 2010); Figure 1.…”

Section: Combined Effects On Energetic Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since lipid storage and metabolism are important environmental adaptations in polar bears, disruption of these processes by POPs may seriously inflict on the ability of polar bears to tolerate prolonged fasting periods that are predicted to be associated with climate warming. If POPs increases metabolic rates, high body burdens of POPs are likely to induce higher rates of body mass loss, and thus increase mortality rates beyond those predicted to be caused by prolonged fasting alone (Molnar et al, , 2014 …”

Section: Combined Effects On Energetic Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

et al. 2015

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Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

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Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Laidre

Atkinson

Regehr

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

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Corrigendum to “Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change” [Biol. Conserv. 143 (2010) 1612–1622]

Cited by 26 publications

References 2 publications

Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

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