Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence: 2005 Update

Greene, David L.; Ahmad, Sanjana

doi:10.2172/886002

Cited by 27 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…3 At the macro level, defending energy supplies, and the transfer of wealth from energy importers to exporters, can shape global geopolitics and involve trillions of dollars of resources. [4][5][6] After decades of discussion, the energy security debate now rightly focuses on a critical global dilemma: Can the world have secure, reliable, and affordable supplies of energy while also transitioning to a low-carbon energy system? The evolution of this debate highlights the multifaceted nature of the energy security dilemma, although the key dimensions of the problem are still being disputed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy security: challenges and needs

Sovacool

2012

WIREs Energy & Environment

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This review article describes four broad categories of emerging global energy security threats. After defining energy security, it discusses threats related to the availability of energy resources and fuels, the affordability of the services they provide, the efficiency of their use, and the effective management of their negative environmental and social impacts, notably climate change. It concludes by noting how the energy security of many industrialized and developing countries has eroded over the past few decades and proposes potential areas of future research. This article is categorized under: Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Energy insecurity can also lead to bankruptcy of firms unable to pass on extra costs to their customers . At the macro level, defending energy supplies, and the transfer of wealth from energy importers to exporters, can shape global geopolitics and involve trillions of dollars of resources …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy security: challenges and needs

Sovacool

2012

WIREs Energy & Environment

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“…Since then, U.S. dependence on petroleum imports has declined slightly, but the net import share of U.S oil consumption is expected to stabilize at 50% by 2020 [2]. From 1970 to 2004, the cumulative direct economic costs of oil dependence -including wealth transfer, potential GDP loss, and macroeconomic adjustment, but excluding the military expenditures on oil supplies protection -exceeded $2.9 trillion in constant 2005 dollars [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Societal lifetime cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Sun

Ogden

Delucchi

2010

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy

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Various alternative fuels and vehicles have been proposed to address transportation related environmental and energy issues such as air pollution, climate change and energy security. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are widely seen as an attractive long term option, having zero tailpipe emissions and much lower well to wheels emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases than gasoline vehicles. Hydrogen can be made from diverse primary resources such natural gas, coal, biomass, wind and solar energy, reducing petroleum dependence. Although these potential societal benefits are often cited as a rationale for hydrogen, few studies have attempted to quantify them. This paper attempts to answer the following research questions: what is the magnitude of externalities and other social costs for FCVs as compared to gasoline vehicles? Will societal benefits of hydrogen and FCVs make these vehicles more competitive with gasoline vehicles? How does this affect transition timing and costs for hydrogen FCVs? We employ societal lifetime cost as an important measure for evaluating hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) from a societal welfare perspective as compared to conventional gasoline vehicles. This index includes consumer direct economic costs (initial vehicle cost, fuel cost, and operating and maintenance cost) over the entire vehicle lifetime, and also considers external costs resulting from air pollution, noise, oil use and greenhouse gas emissions over the full fuel cycle and vehicle lifetime. Adjustments for non-cost social transfers such as taxes and fees, and producer surplus associated with fuel 1 and vehicle are taken into account as well.Unlike gasoline, hydrogen is not widely distributed to vehicles today, and fuel cell vehicles are still in the demonstration phase. Understanding hydrogen transition issues is the key for assessing the promise of hydrogen. We have developed several models to address the issues associated with transition costs, in particular, high fuel cell system costs and large investments for hydrogen infrastructure in the early stages of a transition to hydrogen. We analyze three different scenarios developed by the US Department of Energy for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle market penetration from 2010 to 2025. We employ a learning curve model characterized by three multiplicative factors (technological change, scale effect, and learning-by-doing) for key fuel cell stack components and auxiliary subsystems to estimate how fuel cell vehicle costs change over time. The delivered hydrogen fuel cost is estimated using the UC Davis SSCHISM hydrogen supply pathway model, and most vehicle costs are estimated using the Advanced Vehicle Cost and Energy Use Model (AVCEM). To estimate external costs, we use AVCEM and the Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM). We estimate upstream air pollution damage costs with estimates of emissions factors from the LEM and damage factors with a simple normalized dispersion term from a previous analysis of air 1 Two different accounting stances are explored for e...

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“…here is a global need to increase automotive vehicle fuel economy (FE). An increase in FE would result in global decreases in energy consumption [1], petroleum importation costs [2,3], greenhouse gas emissions [4], and air pollution [5]. A reduction of greenhouse gas emissions reduces the effects of climate change [6], while a reduction in air pollution reduces human deaths associated with air pollution [7].…”

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confidence: 99%

Enabling Prediction for Optimal Fuel Economy Vehicle Control

Asher

Tunnell

Baker

et al. 2018

SAE Technical Paper Series

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V ehicle control using prediction based optimal energy management has been demonstrated to achieve better fuel economy resulting in economic, environmental, and societal benefits. However, research focusing on prediction derivation for use in optimal energy management is limited despite the existence of hundreds of optimal energy management research papers published in the last decade. In this work, multiple data sources are used as inputs to derive a prediction for use in optimal energy management. Data sources include previous drive cycle information, current vehicle state, the global positioning system, travel time data, and an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) that can identify vehicles, signs, and traffic lights. To derive the prediction, the data inputs are used in a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network with external inputs (NARX). Two real world drive cycles were developed for analysis in the Denver, Colorado region: a city-focused drive cycle that passes through downtown as well as a highway-focused drive cycle that transitions across multiple interstates. A validated model of a 2010 Toyota Prius in Autonomie is used to determine the vehicle control fuel economy improvements that are possible from the NARX prediction. The optimal energy management control strategy is determined using dynamic programming due to its ease of use and that the solution produced is the globally optimal solution. The control strategies compared include the existing 2010 Toyota Prius control strategy as a baseline, the neural network prediction optimal energy management control strategy, and a 100% accurate prediction optimal energy management control strategy. Results show that inclusion of various sensors and signals enables a significant amount of the fuel economy improvement with respect to 100% accurate prediction. The conclusion is that prediction based optimal energy management enabled fuel economy improvements can be realized with currently available sensors and signals.

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Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence: 2005 Update

Cited by 27 publications

References 32 publications

Energy security: challenges and needs

Energy security: challenges and needs

Societal lifetime cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Enabling Prediction for Optimal Fuel Economy Vehicle Control

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