Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

Piquet, Julien C.; Warren, Dan L.; Bolaños, Jorge Fernando Saavedra; Rivero, José Miguel Sánchez; Gallo-Barneto, Ramón; Cabrera‐Pérez, Miguel Ángel; Fisher, Robert N.; Fisher, Samuel R.; Rochester, Carlton J.; Hinds, Brian; Nogales, Manuel; López-Darias, Marta

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112917

Cited by 12 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…grandis according to both Worldclim and CHELSA, as commonly found for invasive reptiles (Bellard et al 2013; but see Piquet et al 2021). Note that in absence of biosecurity measures, a high probability of invasion might persist despite climate effects.…”

Section: Future Invasion Risksmentioning

confidence: 80%

Choice of climate data influences current and future global invasion risks for twoPhelsumageckos

Dubos

Fieldsend

Roesch

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Invasion risks may be influenced either negatively or positively by climate change, depending on the species. These can be predicted with species distribution models, but projections can be strongly affected by input environmental data (climate data source, Global Circulation Models and Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP). We modelled the distribution of Phelsuma grandis and P. laticauda, two Malagasy reptiles that are spreading globally. We accounted for drivers of spread and establishment using socio-economic factors (e.g., distance from ports) and two climate data sources, i.e., Climatologies at High Resolution for the Earth's and Land Surface Areas (CHELSA) and Worldclim. We further quantified the degree of agreement in invasion risk models that utilised CHELSA and Worldclim data for current and future conditions. Most areas identified as highly exposed to invasion risks were consistently identified (e.g. in Caribbean and Pacific Islands). However, projected risks differed locally. We also found notable differences in quantitative invasion risk (3% difference in suitability scores for P. laticauda and up to 14% for P. grandis) under current conditions. Despite both species native distributions overlap substantially, climate change will drive opposite responses on invasion risks by 2070 (decrease for P. grandis, increase for P. laticauda). Overall, projections of future invasion risks were the most affected by climate data source, followed by SSP. Our results highlight that assessments of current and future invasion risks are sensitive to the climate data source, especially in Islands. We stress the need to account for multiple climatologies when assessing invasion risks.

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Section: Future Invasion Risksmentioning

confidence: 80%

Choice of climate data influences current and future global invasion risks for twoPhelsumageckos

Dubos

Fieldsend

Roesch

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…The high ecological adaptability of L. californiae , its secretive behavior and unique propensity to survive 28 , its reproductive plasticity 97 , devastating ecological impacts 32 , 98 , and the climatic suitability of the archipelago 99 makes the strengthening of actions to control this invasion an urgent matter for Gran Canaria. Our research provides basic and applicable insights into the spatial ecology of L. californiae that can be directly incorporated into trapping and control action designs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During warm days, they may only be active at night, while milder days allow morning or late afternoon activity 28 . On Gran Canaria, L. californiae usually preys on the three endemic reptiles of the island, along with rodents and followed by birds 29 , 30 , causing a severe impact on the herpetofauna and ecosystems 31 , 32 . A similar phenology to that of the native range can be inferred from the number of captures in the invaded range, which increases from March to May 24 , 25 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial ecology to strengthen invasive snake management on islands

Maestresalas

Piquet

López-Darias

2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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Knowledge on the spatial ecology of invasive predators positively contributes to optimizing their management, especially when involving cryptic and secretive species, such as snakes. However, this information is lacking for most invasive snakes, particularly on islands, where they are known to cause severe ecological and socio-economic impacts. This research is focused on assessing the spatial ecology of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) on Gran Canaria to strengthen management actions. We monitored 15 radio-tagged individuals once per day on 9–11 days per month from July 2020 to June 2021 to calculate the species' home range and describe annual activity patterns in the invaded range. To account for the species' diel activity during the emergence period, we additionally monitored snakes from January to May 2021 during three consecutive days per month in four different time intervals each day. We detected movement (consecutive detections at least 6 m apart) in 31.68% of the 1146 detections during the whole monitoring period. Movements most frequently detected were shorter than 100 m (82.24%), and among them the range 0–20 m was the most recurrent (27.03%). The mean distance of movement was 62.57 ± 62.62 m in 1–2 days. Average home range was 4.27 ± 5.35 ha—calculated with the Autocorrelated Kernel Density Estimator (AKDE) at 95%—and did not significantly vary with SVL nor sex. We detected an extremely low value of motion variance (0.76 ± 2.62 σ2m) compared to other studies, with a general inactivity period from November to February, January being the less active month of the year. Diel activity was higher during central and evening hours than during early morning and night. Our results should be useful to improve control programs for this invasive snake (e.g., trap placement and visual survey guidance) on Gran Canaria. Our research highlights the importance of gathering spatial information on invasive snakes to enhance control actions, which can contribute to the management of secretive invasive snakes worldwide.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite this, individual models of similar taxa may provide insight into the potential temporal biogeography of our study system. Studies that created ecological niche models (ENMs) of snake species suggest both increases and decreases in suitable habitat under climate change conditions and there does not seem to be a consensus among ectothermic reptiles (González‐Fernández et al., 2018; Kalboussi & Achour, 2018; Kirk et al., 2021; Kurnaz, 2023; Lourenço‐de‐Moraes et al., 2019; Piquet et al., 2021; Saptoka et al., 2021). Similarly, models of small mammal distributions suggest different responses to climate change depending on the species and modeling method (Baltensperger & Huettmann, 2015; Mathewson et al., 2017; Morueta‐Holme et al., 2010; Riddell et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap

Hill,

Grisnik,

Hanscom

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator–prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm–ectotherm pair typifying a predator–prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 and I = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = −1.82%, 4.5 = −4.62%, 8.5 = −7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm–endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.

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Could climate change benefit invasive snakes? Modelling the potential distribution of the California Kingsnake in the Canary Islands

Cited by 12 publications

References 63 publications

Choice of climate data influences current and future global invasion risks for twoPhelsumageckos

Choice of climate data influences current and future global invasion risks for twoPhelsumageckos

Spatial ecology to strengthen invasive snake management on islands

The past, present, and future of predator–prey interactions in a warming world: Using species distribution modeling to forecast ectotherm–endotherm niche overlap

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