KEY WORDS Breast cancer Genetics p53 BRCA 1 Linkage INTRODUCTION There have been a number of recent advances in the genetics of heritable breast cancer. These are already beginning to influence risk assessment in individuals who are considered potentially susceptible to malignancy on the basis of their family history. It is anticipated that continued progress in this field will eventually lead to the identification of a small, very high risk group of breast cancer gene carriers. Diagnostic organ screening, surgical, and pharmacological prophylaxis will be more cost-effective in this well-defined and not insignificant subpopulation. The early findings of Anderson (1974, 1977) and Lynch et al. (1976, 1979) that first degree relatives of breast cancer patients were at particularly high risk if the index case had either malignancy at young age or bilateral disease have recently been reaffirmed (Houlston et al. , 1992; Tulinius et al., 1992a). Houlston et al. provide graphs which estimate, for first degree relatives of breast cancer patients, probability of disease over 10 years and also lifetime probability, according to age of diagnosis of the index case and age of the sister, mother or daughter requiring assessment. Such relative risks are accurate for the population as a whole, yet absolute risk will obviously vary from family to family if some breast cancer pedigrees represent chance clusters of a common malignancy while others are due to a highly penetrant gene. Confirmation that there is indeed heterogeneity (both a genetic and a non-genetic component) in the aetiology of breast cancer pedigrees has come from several statistical analyses of cancer distribution within the families of breast cancer probands. These studies are known as segregation analyses. The relative likelihood of obtaining the observed distribution of affected and unaffected pedigree members is computed under different genetic models such as single gene autosomal dominant, recessive or polygenic inheritance. In most studies the maximum likelihood score achieved by application of the model of a single autosomal dominant gene with 80-90 per cent lifetime penetrance and carried by 1-6 in every 1000 women has been sufficient to displace other genetic possibilities (Newman et aI., 1988; Claus et al. , 1991; Iselius et al., 1991). In breast cancer pedigrees, some individuals affected by malignancy may be nongene-carriers whereas some unaffected relatives may be gene-carriers who have yet to develop the disease. The relative likelihood that any