Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

Ferguson, Neil; Cucunubá, Zulma M.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Donnelly, Christl A.; Basáñez, María‐Gloria; Nouvellet, Pierre; Lessler, Justin

doi:10.1126/science.aag0219

Cited by 268 publications

(331 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This implies that ZIKV epidemics could settle into the typical seasonal pattern of mosquito-borne diseases such as DENV. Transmission may be low for several years with a gradual buildup in susceptibility due to births (55). In the real world, however, other factors such as vector control and/or specific local weather conditions could have contributed to the drop of incidence along with herd immunity.…”

Section: Projected Zikv Infections In Childbearing Women and Microcepmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

296

321

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We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics. Using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model, we present numerical results providing insight into the first introduction in the region and the epidemic dynamics across the Americas. We use the model to analyze the spatiotemporal spread and magnitude of the epidemic in the Americas through to February 2017, accounting for seasonal environmental factors and detailed population data. We also provide projections of the number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester, along with estimates for the number of microcephaly cases per country using three different levels of risk based on empirical retrospective studies (36, 37). ResultsIntroduction of ZIKV to the Americas. We identify 12 major transportation hubs in areas related to major events held in Brazil,

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Section: Projected Zikv Infections In Childbearing Women and Microcepmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Zhang

Sun

Chinazzi

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

296

321

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“…However, a complete first wave doesn't necessarily correspond to a single epidemic. Seasonal variation in transmissibility and chance effects due to the connectedness of distant populations ensure that first waves of infection for any single population might be made up of two or more separate epidemics 6,7 (Fig. 1).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As with recent Ebola vaccines in West Africa 11 , average levels of Zika infection in South and Latin America will likely fall to far lower levels 7 …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology: Making high-res Zika maps

Riley

2016

Nat Microbiol

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“…As for 1/δ, "the adult stage of the mosquito is considered to last an average of eleven days in the urban environment" [12], also consistent with biological studies about the species [11] and usual life expectancy for the vector in Rio de Janeiro [5]. Finally, 1/β h and 1/β v have been estimated in the literature [4] as an average of 11.3 days (95% CI: 8.0-16.3) and 8.6 days (95% CI: 6.2-11.6), respectively.…”

Section: Nominal System Responsementioning

confidence: 58%

“…The value 1/α h = 11.2 is compatible with the range of 3-12 days recommended in multiple sources [8,15]. Considering the assumption that the infectiousness in Zika infection ends 1.5-2 days before the virus becomes undetectable [4,6], the chosen 1/γ is 18.9 − 1.5 = 17.4. As for 1/δ, "the adult stage of the mosquito is considered to last an average of eleven days in the urban environment" [12], also consistent with biological studies about the species [11] and usual life expectancy for the vector in Rio de Janeiro [5].…”

Section: Nominal System Responsementioning

confidence: 89%

Zika virus in Brazil: calibration of a epidemic model for the 2016 outbreak

Dantas

Tosin

Cunha

2018

Proceeding Series of the Brazilian Society of Computational and Applied Mathematics

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Abstract. This work deals with the development and calibration of an epidemic model to describe the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Brazil. A mathematical model with 8 differential equations and 7 parameters is employed. Nominal values for the model parameters are estimated from the literature. An inverse problem associated to the model identification is formulated and solved. The calibrated model obtained presents realistic parameters and returns reasonable predictions, with the curve shape similar to the outbreak evolution and peak value close to the maximum number of infected people during 2016.

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Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

Abstract: Epidemic dynamics are key and data gaps must be addressed

Cited by 268 publications

References 11 publications

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Epidemiology: Making high-res Zika maps

Zika virus in Brazil: calibration of a epidemic model for the 2016 outbreak

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