Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Watts, Alexander; Khan, Kamran; Bogoch, Isaac I.

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2019.09.001

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Whilst dengue is prevalent throughout Thailand, research on the long-term circulation of Zika virus indicates elevated risks of the disease (relative to the country as a whole) in the northeast and east of Thailand and reduced risks in the south of the country [ 84 ]. Conversely, an ongoing outbreak of chikungunya (since October 2018) indicates that cases are concentrated in Southern Thailand [ 85 ]. Historically, a large outbreak of Chikungunya in 2008–2010 was also located in the south of Thailand [ 86 ], reaching approximately a third of country districts with a subsequent sero-survey in 2014 confirming the extent of chikungunya penetration in this geographical area (estimated seroprevalence of approximately 29.6%) [ 87 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

2021

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Background With the challenges that dengue fever (DF) presents to healthcare systems and societies, public health officials must determine where best to allocate scarce resources and restricted budgets. Constrained optimization (CO) helps to address some of the acknowledged limitations of conventional health economic analyses and has typically been used to identify the optimal allocation of resources across interventions subject to a variety of constraints. Methods A dynamic transmission model was developed to predict the number of dengue cases in Thailand at steady state. A CO was then applied to identify the optimal combination of interventions (release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and paediatric vaccination) within the constraints of a fixed budget, set no higher than cost estimates of the current vector control programme, to minimize the number of dengue cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Epidemiological, cost, and effectiveness data were informed by national data and the research literature. The time horizon was 10 years. Scenario analyses examined different disease management and intervention costs, budget constraints, vaccine efficacy, and optimization time horizon. Results Under base-case budget constraints, the optimal coverage of the two interventions to minimize dengue incidence was predicted to be nearly equal (Wolbachia 50%; paediatric vaccination 49%) with corresponding coverages under lower bound (Wolbachia 54%; paediatric vaccination 10%) and upper bound (Wolbachia 67%; paediatric vaccination 100%) budget ceilings. Scenario analyses indicated that the most impactful situations related to the costs of Wolbachia and paediatric vaccination with decreases/ increases in costs of interventions demonstrating a direct correlation with coverage (increases/ decreases) of the respective control strategies under examination. Conclusions Determining the best investment strategy for dengue control requires the identification of the optimal mix of interventions to implement in order to maximize public health outcomes, often under fixed budget constraints. A CO model was developed with the objective of minimizing dengue cases (and DALYs lost) over a 10-year time horizon, within the constraints of the estimated budgets for vector control in the absence of vaccination and Wolbachia. The model provides a tool for developing estimates of optimal coverage of combined dengue control strategies that minimize dengue burden at the lowest budget.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

2021

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“…Several studies have shown that, since before the pandemic, air travel data, such as the number and demographic characteristics of travelers as well as their countries of origin, are associated with patterns of infectious disease importations. [6][7][8][9] Given the situation in Japan under the COVID-19 pandemic, it is possible that the number and distributions of infectious disease cases among travelers to non-endemic countries had changed. The aim of this study was to describe the important changes in trends and distributions of imported infectious diseases among travelers entering Japan before and during the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiologic Trends and Distributions of Imported Infectious Diseases Among Travelers to Japan Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2016 to 2021: A Descriptive Study

Kasamatsu

Kanou

Fukusumi

et al. 2024

Journal of Epidemiology

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Background Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan. Methods This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts—both by number and per arrival—were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020–March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016–March 2020). Results A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5–78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5–33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9–16.8). Conclusion The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.

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“…mosquitoes are abundant [7,8]. Among the more recent major chikungunya fever outbreaks is the outbreak in Thailand in 2018 with more than 15,000 reported cases [9,10]. Most of the chikungunya cases, however, were reported in the southern provinces bordering Malaysia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological serosurvey of chikungunya fever post outbreak at Tanjung Sepat, Malaysia

Khor¹,

Teoh²,

Sam³

et al. 2023

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Introduction: Chikungunya fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease that usually presents with prominent arthralgia. An outbreak of chikungunya fever was reported in Tanjung Sepat, Malaysia in 2019. The outbreak was limited in size with a low number of cases being reported. The present study sought to determine the possible variables that could have affected the transmission of the infection. Methodology: A cross-sectional study involving 149 healthy adult volunteers from Tanjung Sepat was performed soon after the outbreak had subsided. All the participants donated blood samples and completed the questionnaires. Laboratory detection of anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG antibodies was performed using enzyme-linked immunoassays (ELISA). Risk factors associated with chikungunya seropositivity were determined using logistic regression. Results: The majority (72.5%, n = 108) of the study participants tested positive for CHIKV antibodies. Only 8.3% (n = 9) of the participants out of all the seropositive volunteers had an asymptomatic infection. Participants who resided with a febrile (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.2, confidence interval [CI] 1.3-3.6) or a CHIKV-diagnosed person (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.1, CI 1.2-3.6) in the same household were found likely to be tested positive for CHIKV antibodies. Conclusions: Findings from the study support that asymptomatic CHIKV infections and indoor transmission occurred during the outbreak. Hence, widespread community testing and indoor use of mosquito repellent are among the possible measures that can be implemented to reduce CHIKV transmission during an outbreak.

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Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

Reducing dengue fever cases at the lowest budget: a constrained optimization approach applied to Thailand

Epidemiologic Trends and Distributions of Imported Infectious Diseases Among Travelers to Japan Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2016 to 2021: A Descriptive Study

Epidemiological serosurvey of chikungunya fever post outbreak at Tanjung Sepat, Malaysia

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