Country-Level Governance Indicators as Predictors of COVID-19 Morbidity, Mortality, and Vaccination Coverage: An Exploratory Global Analysis

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect all countries across the globe, this study seeks to investigate the relationship between nations’ governance, COVID-19 national data, and nation-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage. National-level governance indicators (corruption index, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence/terrorism), officially reported COVID-19 national data (cases, death, and tests per one million population), and COVID-19 vaccination coverage was considered for this study to predict COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Results indicate a strong relationship between nations’ governance and officially reported COVID-19 data. Countries were grouped into three clusters using only the governance data: politically stable countries, average countries or “less corrupt countries,” and corrupt countries or “more corrupt countries.” The clusters were then tested for significant differences in reporting various aspects of the COVID-19 data. According to multinomial regression, countries in the cluster of politically stable nations reported significantly more deaths, tests per one million, total cases per one million, and higher vaccination coverage compared with nations both in the clusters of corrupt countries and average countries. The countries in the cluster of average nations reported more tests per one million and higher vaccination coverage than countries in the cluster of corrupt nations. Countries included in the corrupt cluster reported a lower death rate and morbidity, particularly compared with the politically stable nations cluster, a trend that can be attributed to poor governance and inaccurate COVID-19 data reporting. The epidemic evaluation indices of the COVID-19 cases demonstrate that the pandemic is still evolving on a global level.

National governance and excess mortality due to COVID-19 in 213 countries: a retrospective analysis and perspectives on future pandemics

“…One study found that politically stable countries reported more deaths, tests, and cases per capita, as well as higher vaccination coverage compared to corrupt countries. This could be because the most corrupt countries face challenges in registering cases and have lower testing rates, as corruption may have affected the availability of resources and inputs [ 51 ].…”

“…Politically stable nations conducted more testing and had higher numbers of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 compared to countries with political instability. Countries with worse governance indicators and more corruption were associated with decreased reporting of cases, deaths, and testing [ 51 ]. This may be related to the result of the present research, which showed a direct and significant association between “Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism” and excess mortality in 2022.…”

Las vacunas covid y la corrupción de funcionarios en la Gestión Publica

“…Los resultados mostraron que una vez que se inició la pandemia del COVID 19 se extendió por todo el mundo al igual que la corrupción en la adquisición de vacunas COVID generando inequidad, desigualdad en el sector salud, esto también hace que los países sean económicamente menos efectivos, lo cual demostraron que tienen menos reservas para enfrentar una pandemia (Debbag, 2021). El P á g i n a 9171 crecimiento económico se ve distorsionado por la corrupción, donde se demostró la lentitud en la vacunación y su cobertura (Baghbanzadeh et al, 2022). La propagación de la pandemia depende de factores como el sistema de administración pública, la corrupción y la transparencia (Tejedor-Estupiñán, 2020).…”