County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands

Abstract

Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather-and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A Bquick-look^metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in countylevel precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10 mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (<0.3°C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of countylevel seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making.

Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

“…Significant monthly trends of FIS pinpoint months of observed or projected water stress and/or particular counties/crops which may be most vulnerable. Specifically, FIS as a top COL in the SW reflects the water scarcity in this region, on-going historic drought, and potential for future crop declines due to lack of water from underlying causes like drought and heat (Elias et al 2018b).…”

Evaluating strategies for sustainable intensification of US agriculture through the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network

“…Increasingly, through emerging citizen science and open science platforms, producers and other stakeholders can engage in research directly, thereby expanding the interactive relationships between science support and producers (figure 3, Newman et al 2012, Herrick et al 2013). In addition, the USDA Climate Hubs are key partners for disseminating research results, with trusted connections with Cooperative Extension at land-grant universities and a proven track record of providing tools to help agricultural operations adapt to environmental changes (Elias et al 2017). To communicate with agricultural consumers at large, LTAR and other sustainability science institutions might consider locally appropriate, innovative technologies-such as software applications or 'apps' (Pitt et al 2011) and interactive displays in public spaces (Antle et al 2011)that may improve overall agricultural literacy and ultimately inform consumer choices, a primary influence on producer decision-making (figure 3).…”

Hydrologic Characteristics of Streamflow in the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf Coast Hydrologic Region during 1939–2016 and Conceptual Map of Potential Impacts

“…The ecoregions include: the blue ridge, piedmont, southeastern plains, middle Atlantic and southeastern coastal plains [23]. The region is a biodiversity hotspot [3] and produces much of the nation's timber and wood pulp supplies along with cotton, peanuts, citrus, and specialty crops [24].…”

“…This caused a decrease in July precipitation (due to weaker moist transport), while causing reduced northerly winds resulting in an increase in January precipitation (due to weaker dry and cold airflows) [16]. Reduced regional farm and forest productivity may result from altered rainfall patterns and increased climate variability [24]. From a forest-based water production perspective, a 2 • C increase in temperatures can decrease water yield by 11%, and a 10% reduction of precipitation can lead to a 20% decline in water yield in loblolly pine forests [56].…”