Coupled Modeling of Wave and Storm Surge for Explosive Cyclone 2014 in the East Coast of Hokkaido

Kumagai, Kenzo; Kim, Sooyoul; Tsujio, Daiki; Mase, Hajime; Tsuji, Takahito

doi:10.2208/kaigan.73.i_193

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…On the one hand, minor errors after achieving the maximum sea level are observed in the both sites. Kumagai et al (2017) used a wave-storm-surge coupled model for a hindcasting computation of the same surge event at higher resolution (228 m × 309 m) than the current one. While overall variations of the computed sea level at T1 was reasonable, the computed maximum sea level was achieved about three hours earlier than the observed one.…”

Section: Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the mechanism of storm surges driven by the explosive cyclones have been poorly understood because of less research attention in this field since past explosive cyclones never caused significant surge disaster in this area before the 2014 Nemuro event. After the disaster, Kumagai et al (2017) performed a hindcasting computation of transitional surge and wave systems during the travel of the 2014 explosive cyclone. Bricker et al (2015) estimated possible damage extensions for a hypothetical storm with 150% the intensity of the 2014 cyclone as a possible effect of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic assessment of storm surge potential due to explosive cyclogenesis in the northwest Pacific region

Saruwatari

Fukuhara

Watanabe

2019

Coastal Engineering Journal

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Extratropical cyclones that develop rapidly in the northwest Pacific Ocean, called explosive cyclones, have caused storm surges twice recently along the coast of Nemuro Bay, located in northeastern Japan, in 2014 and 2015. As the number and intensity of explosive cyclones have increased over the last three decades near the Japanese archipelago (Iwao, Inatsu, and Kimoto 2012), the frequency of extreme storm surges is anticipated to increase under future climatic conditions. Explosive cyclones formed in the northwest Pacific region can be categorized into three major types (Yoshida and Asuma 2004) based on their evolution: Type-I cyclones develop over the Sea of Japan and travel toward the Sea of Okhotsk, Type-II are generated on the continent and move toward the Pacific Ocean through the Sea of Japan, and Type-III travel northward in the Pacific Ocean along the Japanese archipelago. We performed computational experiments of past storm surges to find statistical fea-tures of local sea levels, depending on the types of the cyclone evolution under a realistic meteorological scenario of winter cyclones, with aim to provide possible sea level rise expected in the northeast Asia.Here, we show that amplification of local sea level, governed by the orientation of coastal lines with cyclone tracks, is defined by the evolution type that is classified by their trajectories, rather than the intensity, of the cyclone. Nemuro Bay is the most vulnerable site in the northwest Pacific region regardless of the evolution type; thus repeated disasters are anticipated therein. Severe storm surges are also expected along certain other semi-enclosed coasts facing the northern Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk due to Type-I cyclones. The probabilistic evaluation of sea levels depending on the cyclone evolution type as introduced in this study may be useful for evaluating potential disasters.

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Section: Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%