Coupled urban change and natural hazard consequence model for community resilience planning

Abstract

With disasters occurring at the nexus of the built-natural-social environments (Mileti, 1999;Peek & Guikema, 2021), recent natural hazards have highlighted the need for disaster resilient communities (Koliou et al., 2018). Increasing community resilience has gained traction in recent years with local stakeholders, national, and global entities alike addressing community resilience and disaster risk reduction (e.g., NIST, 2016a; OSSPAC, 2013; SPUR, 2009; UNDRR, 2015). Simultaneously, however, complexities of increasing community resilience in an uncertain future are being identified. These complexities stem from a variety of sources and can include accelerating human activities, increased uncertainty in the built-natural-social environments, including climate change, and increased complexity of infrastructure systems themselves (Chester et al., 2021;Spies et al., 2014). Population growth, urban change, and a changing climate are expected to further contribute to increased exposure and societal losses associated with natural hazards in both the immediate and long-term future (