Coupling Different Machine Learning and Meta-Heuristic Optimization Techniques to Generate the Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Map in the French Alps

Abstract

The focus of this study is to introduce a hybrid predictive framework encompassing different meta-heuristic optimization and machine learning techniques to identify the regions susceptible to snow avalanches. To accomplish this aim, the present research sought to acquire the best-performed model among nine different hybrid scenarios encompassing three different meta-heuristics, namely particle swarm optimization (PSO), gravitational search algorithm (GSA), and Cuckoo Search (CS), and three different ML approaches, i.e., support vector classification (SVC), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN), pertaining to different predictive families. According to diligent analysis performed with regard to the blinded testing set, the PSO-SGB illustrated the most satisfactory predictive performance with an accuracy of 0.815, while the precision and recall were found to be 0.824 and 0.821, respectively. The F1-score of the predictions was found to be 0.821, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was obtained to be 0.9. Despite attaining similar predictive success via the CS-SGB model, the time-efficiency analysis underscored the PSO-SGB, as the corresponding process consumed considerably less computational time compared to its counterpart. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) implementation further informed that slope, elevation, and wind speed are the most contributing attributes to detecting snow avalanche susceptibility in the French Alps.