2016
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20120555
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CoVaR

Abstract: We propose a measure of systemic risk, Δ CoVaR, defined as the change in the value at risk of the financial system conditional on an institution being under distress relative to its median state. Our estimates show that characteristics such as leverage, size, maturity mismatch, and asset price booms significantly predict Δ CoVaR. We also provide out-of-sample forecasts of a countercyclical, forwardlooking measure of systemic risk, and show that the 2006:IV value of this measure would have predicted more than o… Show more

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Cited by 1,913 publications
(1,419 citation statements)
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References 57 publications
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“…CCBs are debt instruments that automatically convert to equity if and when the issuing firm or bank reaches a specified level of financial distress. While qualitative discussions of CCBs 1 The bank bailouts during the subprime crisis reflect a failure of the regulatory principles created under the 1991 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) and specifically of its requirement that bank regulators take "prompt corrective action" (PCA) in response to declining bank capital ratios. Eisenbeis and Wall (2002) provide a detailed discussion of FDICIA and its PCA requirements.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…CCBs are debt instruments that automatically convert to equity if and when the issuing firm or bank reaches a specified level of financial distress. While qualitative discussions of CCBs 1 The bank bailouts during the subprime crisis reflect a failure of the regulatory principles created under the 1991 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA) and specifically of its requirement that bank regulators take "prompt corrective action" (PCA) in response to declining bank capital ratios. Eisenbeis and Wall (2002) provide a detailed discussion of FDICIA and its PCA requirements.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We estimate systemic risk according to the SRISK measure proposed by Brownless and Engel (2015) and the Delta CoVaR developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). We then investigate the main drivers of the SRISK measure, using information on bank-level cost of equity and fundamental information on total assets, investments, and non-performing loans, and market-level characteristics.…”
Section: Sample and Methodologymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Besides the estimation of the SRISK and its components, we also estimate the Delta CoVaR developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011). It corresponds to the VaR of market returns conditional on a critical event on the returns of a bank i.…”
Section: Srisk and Co-var Measuresmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Empirically, our research is related to the contributions to systemic importance measures like Systemic Expected Shortfall (SES) and the Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) proposed by Acharya et al (2012) based on banks' undercapitalization, the countercyclical prudential regulation highlighted by the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) or the SDSVaR method (State-Dependent Sensitivity VaR) developed by Adams et al (2014) that reflects the contagion effects within different states of the economy. More recently, authors developed measures to identify SIFIs based on interbank positions (Drehmann and Tarashev, 2013), sovereign interlinkages (Correa et al, 2014), cross-border linkages (Minoiu et al, 2015) or network analysis (Cont et al, 2013;Hautsch et al, 2015;Betz et al, 2016).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%