COVID-19 and Beyond: COVID-19 Interventions and Power Plant Emissions in the United States

Abstract

Short-and long-term changes in electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions were observed during COVID-19 public health interventions in the United States. In a generalized synthetic control framework, we employ weekly EGU SO 2 , NO x , and CO 2 emissions data from EPA's Clean Air Markets Database and location-specific meteorology from 2010 to 2019 to estimate each EGU's hypothetical business as usual (BAU) emissions throughout 2020. We find that over 60% (covering >50% of total electricity generation) of EGUs saw SO 2, NO x , and CO 2 emissions increases relative to BAU, with most of the increases occurring in the eastern U.S. We find increases relative to BAU in the March−April stringent lockdown period for SO 2 , NO x , and CO 2 of 44% (4500 tons/week), 23% (2200 tons/week), and 14% (2.3 million tons/week), respectively, with similar results from March to December 2020. We find that EGUs using coal as primary fuels are the main driver of increased emissions due to increased operations, and SO 2 emissions increases at coal EGUs led to a 28% increase in PM 2.5 related to coal SO 2 emissions relative to BAU across March− December. We find increases in SO 2 and NO x emissions factors at coal EGUs in 2020 relative to 2019 that likely played a role in these increases, and we identify changes in coal fuel consumption and price that may have played a role.