COVID-19 and Changes in Intentions to Migrate from The Gambia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. We examine how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. We use a large-scale survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 to ask about changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighbouring Senegal. We find that youth say that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration.

Risky journeys – Risk and decision‐making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea

“…Todaro & Maruszko, 1987) and emerging evidence on the relevance of information in general migration decisions (e.g. Bah & Batista, 2018; Shrestha, 2020; Tjaden & Dunsch, 2021; Tjaden & Gninafon, 2022). Irregular migrants weigh the cost and benefits of leaving and consider risks associated with the journey and life at destination when forming preferences.…”

“…Bah and Batista (2018) conduct a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment to assess the effect of knowledge ‘actual’ risk of dying en route and of obtaining a residence permit on migration intentions for a sample of potential migrants in the Gambia. The authors find the migration decisions of potential migrants actively respond to information about relevant facts regarding costs and benefits of migration.…”

“…It is important to note that mortality rates as used by Shrestha (2019), and Bah and Batista (2018) are arguably prone to measurement error as actual mortality is likely to be vastly underestimated based on available sources, particularly in the context of irregular migration from Africa to Europe (Black, 2020).…”

“…This study aims to make an empirical contribution to the limited evidence base on the relationship between risk information and irregular migration – a nascent field of research (Bah & Batista, 2018; Batista & McKenzie, 2018; Shrestha 2020; Tjaden & Dunsch, 2021; Tjaden & Gninafon, 2022).…”

How Migrant Resource Centres affect migration decisions: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Pakistan

“…The former event – a mobile cinema – and the latter – peer‐to‐peer communication between would‐be and returned migrants – were shown to reduce self‐reported likelihood by 20 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. Exposing would‐be migrants to information on the chances of dying en route and of obtaining a legal residence permit have been shown to affect self‐reported willingness to migrate in the Gambia, with follow‐up research a year later showing that actual migratory behaviour correlates strongly with self‐reported intention (Bah & Batista, 2018), with similar results in Nepal when migrants were provided with information on deaths whilst migrating and wages for emigrants (Shrestha, 2020) or according to actual variation in the reported death rate of migrants by district (Shrestha, 2019). However, Tjaden (2022) emphasises that, although risks – and the awareness thereof – affects migration decisions, they have far weaker predictive power than broader structural factors, measured as village fixed effects; though it is worth remembering that risk awareness remains distinct from information.…”