Covid-19 and Civil Wars in the Arab World: The Cases of Syria, Libya and Yemen

Ali, Hassanein

doi:10.1080/03068374.2020.1837540

Cited by 6 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…During the global spread of COVID-19, the technically advanced nations focused on the domestic impact of COVID-19 just as the disease is likely spreading intensely in poor and war-affected countries, where it can wreak havoc in these fragile states. This is evident in Libya, Syria and Yemen, which have been locked in destructive armed conflict for almost a decade now (3). These conflicts have resulted in widespread death, injury and population displacement, as well as serious destruction of health care system, which made them ill-prepared for COVID-19 (4).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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“…This has resulted in a process based on rapid decision-making in sub-optimal conditions across several domains, for example, managing challenging arrangements for transportation: trauma victims and acutely ill patients are often transported to hospital by bystanders who use their own, non-medical, vehicles. 8 …”

Section: Methods and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most disheartening is that the situation is not in the hands of Yemenis themselves but is perpetrated by both international and local powers. The continued instability caused by the pandemic enables terrorist groups to continue their operations, 7 threatens financial collapse, 8 and causes the absence of government protections. 9 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chronic Health Crises and Emergency Medicine in War-torn Yemen, Exacerbated by the COVID-19 Pandemic

Alsabri

Alsakkaf

Alhadheri

et al. 2022

WestJEM

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Introduction: Much of Yemen’s infrastructure and healthcare system has been destroyed by the ongoing civil war that began in late 2014. This has created a dire situation that has led to food insecurity, water shortages, uncontrolled outbreaks of infectious disease and further failings within the healthcare system. This has greatly impacted the practice of emergency medicine (EM), and is now compounded by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the current state of emergency and disaster medicine in Yemen, followed by unstructured qualitative interviews with EM workers, performed by either direct discussion or via phone calls, to capture their lived experience, observations on and perceptions of the challenges facing EM in Yemen. We summarize and present our findings in this paper. Results: Emergency medical services (EMS) in Yemen are severely depleted. Across the country as a whole, there are only 10 healthcare workers for every 10,000 people – less than half of the WHO benchmark for basic health coverage – and only five physicians, less than one third the world average; 18% of the country’s 333 districts have no qualified physicians at all. Ambulances and basic medical equipment are in short supply. As a result of the ongoing war, only 50% of the 5056 pre-war hospitals and health facilities are functional. In June 2020, Yemen recorded a 27% mortality rate of Yemenis who were confirmed to have COVID-19, more than five times the global average and among the highest in the world at that time. Conclusion: In recent years, serious efforts to develop an advanced EM presence in Yemen and cultivate improvements in EMS have been stymied or have failed outright due to the ongoing challenges. Yemen’s chronically under-resourced healthcare sector is ill-equipped to deal with the additional strain of COVID-19.

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“…Which has the potential to wreak havoc in these fragile states. This is evident in Libya, Syria, and Yemen who have been locked into incredibly destructive armed conflicts for almost a decade now (3). The conflict has resulted in a high rate of mortality, remix, or adapt this material for any purpose without crediting the original authors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Libya, Syria, and Yemen

Daw

2021

Preprint

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Background: Since the Arab uprising 2011, Libya, Syria, and Yemen have gone through a major armed conflict. This resulted in a high rate of mortality, injury, and population displacement with a collapse of the health care system. Furthermore, it was complicated by the emergence of, COVID-19 as a global pandemic which made the population of these countries strive under unusual conditions to tackle both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. The objectives of this study were to determine the impacts and influence of armed conflicts on the epidemiology of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and outline the needed strategies to combat the spread of the pandemic and its upcoming consequences. Methods: The official and public data regarding the dynamics of armed conflict and the spread, of SARS-COV-19 in Libya, Syria, and Yemen were collected from all available sources. Starting from the early emergence of the COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the armed conflict and the spread of the pandemic. Results; Data indicated that there is an increase in the intensity of violence levels at an early stage from March to August reached up to two folds in the three countries particularly in Libya. In this violent period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported ranging from 5-53 cases/day. From September to December, a significant decline in the level of the armed conflict was accompanied by steep upsurges in the number of reported COVID-19 cases reached up to 500 cases/day. The highest accumulative cases of COVID-19 were reported in Libya, Syria, and Yemen respectively. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict has provided an opportunity for SARS-COV-19 to spread. At the early weeks of the pandemic that coincided with high levels of the armed conflict few cases were officially reported indicating a vast undercount, which may suggest a hidden mitigating spread at an early stage. Then the pandemic increased immensely as the armed conflict decline to reach the highest by December. A full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its upcoming consequences.

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Covid-19 and Civil Wars in the Arab World: The Cases of Syria, Libya and Yemen

Cited by 6 publications

References 2 publications

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Chronic Health Crises and Emergency Medicine in War-torn Yemen, Exacerbated by the COVID-19 Pandemic

The impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Libya, Syria, and Yemen

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