COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia?

Josipovič, Damir

doi:10.2298/stnv2101017j

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Seasonal pattern of mortality is related with different drivers, and one of them is flu (Iuliano et al 2018;Portugal 2021). Winter season 2016/17 in Europe was characterized with influenza-associated mortality (Josipovič, 2021;Nielsen et al, 2018) and increase in excess deaths particularly among elderly (Rosano et al ,2019). Since the March 2020, excess mortality rate has significant increase, with highest values in December 2020 (91.4%), October (84.3) and November (67.8) 2021.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Excess mortality and Covid-19 deaths: Preliminary data from Serbia and comparison with European experience

Arsenović¹

2023

Geographica Pannonica

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Mortality statistics is underlay for public health measures and action and consequently it is one of the major indicator in measures of Covid-19 impact on population. This study aim to explore excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Serbia. Excess mortality compares expected and observed number of deaths during the given period. Analysis in this paper was based on excess deaths and excess mortality rate. Data was downloaded from the national COVID-19 database and obtained from a relevant source from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. In order to provide better understanding of excess death, the excess mortality rate was calculated for the period January 2015-June 2022. For the period January 2015-February 2020, 38 months were observed without excess deaths, while in months with excess deaths, almost in all months excess mortality rate was below 12%. Since March 2020, the excess mortality rate has increased significantly, with highest values in December 2020 (91.4%), October (84.3) and November (67.8) 2021.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Excess mortality and Covid-19 deaths: Preliminary data from Serbia and comparison with European experience

Arsenović¹

2023

Geographica Pannonica

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“…For the first year of the pandemic in 2020, the analysis of the excess mortality in Slovenia showed an overestimated official number of COVID-19 deaths (Josipovič 2021). While the official number of COVID-19 deaths for 2020 published in January 2021 by the Slovenian Institute of Public Health (NIJZ 2021) was 3,126, the analysis confirmed only 2,500 excess deaths, considering the mortality trends within the last five-year period (2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019).…”

Section: The Results Of Both Countries From a Comparative Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accordingly, the reported NIJZ number of 3,126 deaths seemed appropriate. Nevertheless, it disregarded the tempo effect and momentum of the population given an unfavourable age structure and the process of accelerated ageing with numerous generations of baby boomers reaching retirement age (Josipovič 2021). By mid-2021, SORS published the definitive data on mortality in 2020.…”

Section: The Results Of Both Countries From a Comparative Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Different Demographic Pathways of the Post-Socialist Transition: Mortality Trends in Croatia and Slovenia during COVID-19

Matassi,

Josipovič

2023

Treatises and Documents, Journal of Ethnic Studies / Razprave in Gradivo, Revija Za Narodnostna Vprašanja

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The paper discusses the COVID-19 mortality in Slovenia and Croatia in 2020 and 2021. The aim of the paper is to determine similarities and differences in mortality trends during COVID-19 period and to discuss the underlying causes and consequences. It is hypothesised that the unfavourable age structure of both countries was a catalyst of the excess mortality differentials, and that the different paths of post-socialist transitions significantly contributed to differential mortality in 2020. The analyses confirmed a biased effect of the excess mortality indicator, which is applicable only if supported with sufficient attributive data. Moreover, findings confirmed the hypothesis that COVID-19 mortality largely contributed to overall mortality in Slovenia in 2020, particularly due to the increased mortality in long-term care facilities (LTCF) which was about 70% higher compared to that of Croatia.

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Depopulation and deep aging: the former Yugoslav and Western Balkans space between the second demographic transition and emigration

Josipovič

2024

stnv

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The article introduces the tentative concept of deep aging – a label used for a situation when the overall ageing effects of the second demographic transition, due to fertility below replacement level, are topped by the excessive emigration of the fertile contingent (additional loss of active population). Deep ageing thus accelerates population decline. But the loss of fertile contingent may affect the total fertility rates and its apparent rise (TFR). Here, the tempo effect of fertility plays the decisive role. The article first assesses the demographic change in the European macroregions in the period after the fall of the Iron Curtain (1990–2020). It then analyses the changes in the area of former Yugoslavia to assess the extent of population change in the last intercensal period, 2011–2022. Building on the previous research of population loss and migration flows after the break-up of Yugoslavia, the overall population change in the region is being assessed. It is also shown that tempo distortion of fertility rates considerably affects the realistic level of fertility and that approximate completed fertility rates fell less dramatically. Since the migration data are less reliable, the analysis of intercensal change was applied to assess the migration losses across the ex-Yugoslav space. To assess the extent of deep ageing, the intercensal projection of fertile contingent was introduced. The stage of deep ageing is the most pronounced in Croatia and Serbia, especially at the younger fertile group, while the overall loss of fertile population is profound and will certainly affect the further future decrease in population. Similarly difficult demographic situation is in other post-Yugoslav countries, where only Slovenia has not yet slid into the stage of deep ageing.

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COVID-19 and excess mortality: Was it possible to lower the number of deaths in Slovenia?

Cited by 3 publications

References 9 publications

Excess mortality and Covid-19 deaths: Preliminary data from Serbia and comparison with European experience

Excess mortality and Covid-19 deaths: Preliminary data from Serbia and comparison with European experience

Different Demographic Pathways of the Post-Socialist Transition: Mortality Trends in Croatia and Slovenia during COVID-19

Depopulation and deep aging: the former Yugoslav and Western Balkans space between the second demographic transition and emigration

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