COVID-19 Chest CT Quantification: Triage and Prognostic Value in Different Ages

Abstract

We evaluated the triage and prognostic performance of seven proposed computed tomography (CT)-severity score (CTSS) systems in two different age groups.Design: Retrospective study.Setting: COVID-19 pandemic.Participants: Admitted COVID-19, PCR-positive patients were included, excluding patients with heart failure and significant pre-existing pulmonary disease. Methods:Patients were divided into two age groups: ≥65 years and ≤64 years. Clinical data indicating disease severity at presentation and at peak disease severity were recorded. Initial CT images were scored by two radiologists according to seven CTSSs (CTSS1-CTSS7). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for the performance of each CTSS in diagnosing severe/critical disease on admission (triage performance) and at peak disease severity (prognostic performance) was done for the whole cohort and each age group separately.Results: Included were 96 patients. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between the two radiologists scoring the CT scan images were good for all the CTSSs (ICC=0.764-0.837). In the whole cohort, all CTSSs showed an unsatisfactory area under the curve (AUC) in the ROC curve for triage, excluding CTSS2 (AUC=0.700), and all CTSSs showed acceptable AUCs for prognostic usage (0.759-0.781). In the older group (≥65 years; n=55), all CTSSs excluding CTSS6 showed excellent AUCs for triage (0.804-0.830), and CTSS6 was acceptable (AUC=0.796); all CTSSs showed excellent or outstanding AUCs for prognostication (0.859-0.919). In the younger group (≤64 years; n=41), all CTSSs showed unsatisfactory AUCs for triage (AUC=0.487-0.565) and prognostic usage (AUC=0.668-0.694), excluding CTSS6, showing marginally acceptable AUC for prognostic performance (0.700). Conclusion:Those CTSSs requiring more numerous segmentations, namely CTSS2, CTSS7, and CTSS5 showed the best ICCs; therefore, they are the best when comparison between two separate scores is needed. Irrespective of patients' age, CTSSs show minimal value in triage and acceptable prognostic value in COVID-19 patients. CTSS performance is highly variable in different age groups. It is excellent in those aged ≥65 years, but has little if any value in younger patients. Multicenter studies with larger sample size to evaluate results of this study should be conducted.