COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

Hughes, Angus; Ragonnet, Romain; Jayasundara, Pavithra; Ngo, Hoang-Anh; Lara-Tuprio, Elvira de; Estuar, Maria Regina Justina E.; Teng, Timothy Robin; Boon, Law Kian; Peariasamy, Kalaiarasu M; Chong, Zhuo Lin; Ghazali, Izzuna Mudla Mohamed; Fox, Greg J.; Nguyen, Thi Anh Huong; Le, Linh‐Vi; Abayawardana, Milinda; Shipman, David; McBryde, Emma S.; Meehan, Michael T.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Trauer, James M.

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100563

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Model outputs were routinely discussed among partners; satisfaction around model outputs paved the way for codevelopment of modeling results in the policy and decision-making process. In addition, patterns of reported and modeled COVID-19 disease and mortality were used for discussions regarding public health surveillance to identify possible challenges and misreporting of COVID-19 with specialists at the Ministry of Health, concerns that were evident from the experience of COVID-19 collaborative modeling in the Philippines by the WHO Western Pacific Region Office ( 28 ).…”

Section: Participatory Modeling Of the Covid-19 Pandemic In Jordanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Bellizzi,

Letchford,

Adib

et al. 2023

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020–January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.

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Section: Participatory Modeling Of the Covid-19 Pandemic In Jordanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Bellizzi,

Letchford,

Adib

et al. 2023

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policymakers have turned to mathematicians in predicting cases and crafting strategies that can mitigate the spread of infection [ [7] , [8] , [9] ]. There are numerous modelling studies considering COVID-19 variants [ [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

Mendoza

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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“…Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policymakers turn to mathematicians in predicting cases and crafting strategies that can mitigate the spread of infection. 8,9,10 There are numerous modelling studies considering the COVID-19 variants. [11][12][13][14][15] However, only a few published works tackle the lifting of the mask mandate considering the Omicron variant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Koreans be ‘FREE’ from mask wearing?: Advanced mathematical model can suggest the idea

Mendoza

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background It was found that more than half of the population in Korea had a prior COVID-19 infection. In 2022, most nonpharmaceutical interventions, except mask-wearing indoors, had been lifted. Discussions about easing the indoor mask mandate are ongoing. Methods We developed an age-structured compartmental model that distinguishes vaccination history, prior infection, and medical staff from the rest of the population. Contact patterns among hosts were separated based on age and location. We simulated scenarios with the lifting of the mask mandate all at once or sequentially according to the locations. Furthermore, we investigated the impact of a new variant assuming that it has higher transmissibility and risk of breakthrough infection. Findings We found that the peak size of administered severe patients might not exceed 1,100 when the mask mandate is lifted everywhere, and 800 if the mask mandate only remains in the hospital. If the mask mandate is lifted in a sequence (except hospital), then the peak size of administered severe patients did not exceed 650. Moreover, if the new variant have both of higher transmissibility and immune reduction therefore the effective reproductive number of the new variant is approximately 3 times higher than the current variant, additional interventions may be needed to keep the administered severe patients from exceeding 2,000, which is the critical level we set. Interpretation Our findings showed that the lifting of the mask mandate, except in hospitals, would be applicable more manageable if it is implemented sequentially. Considering a new variant, we found that depending on the population immunity and transmissibility of the variant, wearing masks and other interventions may be necessary for controlling the disease.

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COVID-19 collaborative modelling for policy response in the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam

Cited by 5 publications

References 18 publications

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

Can Koreans be ‘FREE’ from mask wearing?: Advanced mathematical model can suggest the idea

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