COVID-19 Control and the Economy: Test, Test, Test

Abstract

Hard lockdowns have left policymakers to face the ethical dilemma of choosing between saving lives and saving the economy. However, massive testing could have helped to respond more effectively to Covid-19 crisis. In this paper, we study the trade-off between infection control, lockdown and testing. The aim is to understand how these policies can be effectively combined to contain Covid-19 without damaging the economy. An extended SIR epidemic model is developed to identify the set of testing and lockdown levels that lead to a reproduction number below one, thus to infection control and saving lives. Depending on whether the testing policy is static or dynamic, the model suggests that testing 4% to 7% of the population is the way to safely reopen the economy and the society.