COVID-19 Highest Incidence Forecast in Russia Based on Regression Model

Aronov, I. Z.; Maksimova, Olga V.; Galkina, Nataliia

doi:10.33889/ijmems.2020.5.5.063

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Thus, the relationship between the air passenger traffic density and the duration of the epidemic up to its peak was proved in the paper by Aronov, Maksimova, Galkina. [3] As to the poor countries, the epidemic comes there later, but it spreads quickly due to overcrowding, poor living conditions, poor domestic hygiene, poor-quality medicine. Therefore, after the first outbreak in wealthy countries, the incidence got increasing in South Asia and Latin America.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Features of the New Type Global Recession

Lyakin¹

2021

SHS Web of Conf.

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Research background: The increasing global economic decrease that got the name of Great Lockdown had world pandemic as its trigger. It is already obvious that by its depth, breadth and the number of economics included this recession can be compared to the Great Depression. Shocks nature influences a lot on the structural changes during the recession. The tertiary sector industries, which development is determined by globalization and that are typical for post-industrial economies have the heaviest losses. Now it is impossible to predict are the de-globalization processes permanent or just temporary and which changes in sectoral structure will stay with us after the COVID-19 pandemic. The period of sharp drop is finishing now and it’s obvious that the specific nature of current recession will reveal itself during the market adjustment to the new conditions. Purpose of the article: is to highlight the specific features of recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic, distinguishing it from the previous global recessions. Methods: this article research is based on comparative analysis of main macroeconomic variables trends during the global recessions. Findings & Value added: Current global recession specific features highlited in this article are: industries with a high share of employment are subject to the greatest compression; the economic recession took its origin as a result of the supply shock, and it has a clearly defined industry specifics. The growing uncertainty is limiting the recovery growth potential.; Keynesian measures of countercyclical regulation appeared to be ineffective during the release restrictions phase.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Features of the New Type Global Recession

Lyakin¹

2021

SHS Web of Conf.

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“…Analyzing the scientific works of Aronov et al (2020), Drapkina et al (2020), Ferraro et al (2020 regarding the modelling of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality from it, we should note that preliminary prognoses regarding official data are overestimated. This could be due to the more efficient operation of the health care system, or due to the underestimation of the official death rate from COVID-19.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 92%

Natural population movement and COVID-19: data from Russia

et al. 2021

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The COVID-19 pandemic is highly infectious, so it paralyzed the health systems of many countries causing a high mortality rate. Official data on COVID-19 deaths at many sites are questioned, and the figures are considered several times higher than official data. In this sense, the objective of the study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the natural movement of the population and, in addition, to evaluate the real mortality rate from COVID-19 in Russia from the construction of predictive mortality models. The study used data from the World Health Organization and the Statistical Service of the Federal State of Russia; se used linear and polynomial models to construct mortality models. The study revealed an underestimation of the official COVID-19 death rate by 2.4 to 6.8 times, depending on the data source. There was a sharp increase in mortality in Russia in 2020 among people over 50 years of age, and with the increase in age, mortality increased. The main reasons for the sharp increase in mortality were coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases, among others.

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“…A number of modelling and forecasting tools quantifying the future COVID-19 burden are available in different countries (Aronov et al, 2020;Drapkina et al, 2020;Ferraro et. al., 2020;Haghani et al, 2020;Harapan et al, 2020;Scafetta, 2020;Singh et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 mortality rate in Russian regions: forecasts and reality

Neklyudova¹,

Lifshits²,

Неклюдова³

2020

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Relevance. COVID-19 is an extremely dangerous disease that not only spreads quickly, but is also characterized by a high mortality rate. Therefore, prediction of the number of deaths from the new coronavirus is an urgent task. Research objective. The aim of the study is to provide a more accurate estimate of the real number of coronavirus-related deaths in Russian regions. Data and methods. The main research method is econometric modeling. Comparison of various data was also applied. The authors’ calculations were based on Rosstat data, the data of the World Bank and specialized sites with coronavirus statistics in Russia and in the world. Results. We identified the factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality rates in various countries were identified, assessed how much the official Russian statistics underestimated mortality in Russian regions, and provided predictive estimates of mortality as a result of the pandemic. We also determined the number of additional coronavirus-induced deaths. Conclusions. The official data on COVID-19 mortality in Russia underestimate the actual numbers more than twofold. The number of direct and indirect victims of the pandemic in Russia at the end of July was approximately 43 thousand people.

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COVID-19 Highest Incidence Forecast in Russia Based on Regression Model

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

Features of the New Type Global Recession

Features of the New Type Global Recession

Natural population movement and COVID-19: data from Russia

COVID-19 mortality rate in Russian regions: forecasts and reality

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